3.56 million Ethereum are trapped on the books, with $3 billion in unrealized losses, and Bitmine's gamble is turning into a desperate survival test.
"BitcoinOG (1011short)" is a name that resonates throughout the cryptocurrency world. On November 29, it suddenly reversed its bullish position and opened a short position of 5,000 ETH, with a notional value of up to $15.04 million.
Just 24 hours later, this whale quickly closed the position, making a profit of $54,800. This seemingly successful trade reveals the deep turmoil in the Ethereum market.
In the same market, the listed company Bitmine is facing a more severe test. As the price of Ethereum fell below $3,000, the 3.56 million ETH held by the company fell into $3 billion in unrealized losses.
1. Whale Turnaround
● On November 29, a whale named "BitcoinOG (1011short)" suddenly implemented a shocking strategy shift. This long-term bullish investor opened a short position of 5,000 ETH with 5x leverage, with a notional value exceeding $15 million, setting a liquidation price of $5,056.5.
● However, the dramatic changes in the market were just beginning. The very next day, on November 30, this whale suddenly closed the massive short position. The trade ultimately realized a profit of $54,800, which, relative to its $15.04 million notional value, yields a return of only 0.36%.
● Analysts examining this trade pointed out: "The profit from this trade is very small relative to the notional value, indicating that the decline in Ethereum's price was not as significant as the trader expected, or that the holding period for the position was very short."
2. Bitmine's Dilemma
● As the local Ethereum price fell from over $4,000 to the current level of around $3,000, Bitmine's balance sheet came under immense pressure. This listed company had planned to accumulate 5% of the total supply of Ethereum tokens and has now held 3.56 million ETH, accounting for nearly 3% of the circulating supply.
● However, as market headwinds intensified, Bitmine's aggressive strategy began to show serious problems. Based on an average purchase price of $4,009, Bitmine's unrealized losses are nearing $3 billion.
● Even more concerning is that the company's cash reserves are about $607 million, and it has "almost put all cash into" Ethereum acquisitions, losing the ability to buy more at lower prices.
● This has put Bitmine in a "toxic financing" dilemma, where the company had to sell 5.22 million shares at $70 each during a financing round in September 2025, while also attaching two warrants for each share.
There's an old saying on Wall Street: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." In November 2025, the tide receded faster than anyone imagined.
3. Market Background
The Ethereum market is experiencing a comprehensive retreat in buying pressure, with the once three major supporting forces—ETFs, treasury companies, and on-chain funds—now fully differentiated.
● The digital asset treasury companies have also entered a phase of differentiation. Currently, the total strategic reserve of Ethereum in the treasury industry is 6.2393 million ETH, accounting for 5.15% of the supply, but the pace of accumulation has noticeably slowed in recent months.
● On the other end of the market, long-term holders (addresses holding for over 155 days) are currently selling about 45,000 ETH daily, equivalent to approximately $140 million, marking the highest selling level since 2021. This large-scale selling further exacerbates the downward pressure on the market.
● On a macro level, the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policy has also cast a shadow over the market. The expectation of a rate cut in December plummeted from 66% to 44%, putting pressure on risk assets.
● The cryptocurrency market faced a storm on December 1, with Ethereum's price dropping 6% to below $2,900. Sean McNulty, head of derivatives trading for FalconX in the Asia-Pacific region, stated: "This marks the beginning of risk aversion in December. The most concerning aspect is the meager inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the lack of buyers at lower prices."
4. In-Depth Analysis
Beneath the surface turmoil in the Ethereum market, a deep game of supply control is unfolding.
● The Ethereum market in 2025 presents two distinctly different behavioral patterns: on one hand, OG sellers (long-term holders) are liquidating over 100,000 ETH positions as prices fall. On the other hand, whale accumulators have increased their holdings by 8.01 million ETH since April 2025, with a single-day inflow of 871,000 ETH on June 12, setting the record for the largest whale accumulation that year.
This differentiation has created a tug-of-war in supply, bringing both short-term volatility risks and signaling that if institutional buying can maintain Ethereum in the $3,000-$3,400 support range, a turning point may emerge.
● In this tug-of-war, Bitmine's dilemma reflects deeper issues. The company's stock price has fallen about 80% from its July peak, with a current market value of about $9.2 billion, even lower than its ETH holding value of $10.6 billion.
● The market's skepticism about the company's value is directly reflected in its mNAV (market value to net asset ratio), which has dropped to 0.87, indicating concerns about the company's unrealized losses and funding sustainability.
● This discount phenomenon is not an isolated case; the entire DAT (digital asset treasury) sector is facing structural adjustments. Leading companies can still maintain buying power through capital and confidence, while smaller companies are trapped in liquidity constraints and debt repayment pressures. The market's baton has shifted from widespread incremental buying to a few "lone warriors" with capital advantages.
5. Future Outlook
Despite the market being shrouded in pessimism, some potential positive factors may change the current trajectory.
● The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 4 plans to increase the number of blobs from 9 to 15, which directly means that Layer 2 transaction fees will significantly decrease again. Mainstream L2s like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base are expected to see gas fees drop by 30%-50%, which may stimulate activity in the Ethereum ecosystem.
● On the macroeconomic front, there are also signs of a turnaround. The latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10 meeting has surged to 85%, up from just 35% a week ago. This sharp increase is directly due to the November PPI data coming in significantly below expectations, with inflationary pressures continuing to ease.
● Even more exciting is that the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair may be announced as early as before Christmas, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett currently leading the race. Hassett is a typical "rate cutter" and "tax cutter," having publicly criticized Powell for aggressive rate hikes and advocating for rates to be significantly below inflation.
● All these positive factors do not mean the end of the DAT companies' dilemmas. The world's leading index provider MSCI has initiated consultations to consider removing companies with over 50% of their balance sheets in crypto assets from the index. The final decision will be announced on January 15, 2026, a date seen as a judgment day for the DAT sector.
The market's focus is now on two key dates: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10 and the final decision by MSCI on January 15, 2026, regarding whether to exclude companies heavily invested in crypto assets from the index.
These events will determine the financing capabilities of companies like Bitmine and will also influence the investment strategies of whales. As one market observer put it, in this game between whales and hoarders, the real test is not who can make more in a bull market, but who can survive longer in a bear market.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
