🎯 Event Review

In the morning Beijing time, the BTC market experienced a sharp fluctuation. Within just one hour, it dropped from the $90,300 range to around $87,000, a decline of nearly 4%. Accompanied by a flurry of news—from Trump confirming the selection of the Federal Reserve chair to regulatory bodies taking multiple measures to crack down on virtual currencies—market sentiment plummeted. The widespread presence of high-leverage positions meant that once prices hit risk thresholds, various forced liquidations quickly followed, further exacerbating the price crash.

⏰ Timeline

• 07:36: International and macro news emerged, with Trump confirming the selection of the Federal Reserve chair, adding uncertainty to the market.
• 08:00: The market quickly entered a state of severe volatility, with BTC prices running around $90,300–$90,400, exposing high leverage risks.
• 08:04: BTC first fell below the $90,000 mark, with prices around $89,564, showing initial downward pressure.
• 08:09: BTC further dipped to about $88,973, while reports indicated that approximately $100 million in long positions were liquidated in the past hour, escalating the cascading effect.
• 08:33: Under the influence of chain liquidations and liquidity tightening, BTC fell below the $88,000 range, with prices dropping to around $87,959.
• 08:56: As panic spread, BTC fell below the $87,000 mark, with frequent forced liquidation events.
• 09:35: After the severe fluctuations, the market stabilized slightly, with BTC prices rebounding to around $87,495, but the overall oscillation trend remained evident.

🔍 Cause Analysis

This sharp fluctuation was mainly influenced by two factors:

1. Forced Liquidations Triggered by High-Leverage Trading
   A large number of traders adopted high-leverage strategies, making even slight price fluctuations capable of triggering chain liquidations. Key price levels (such as $90,000, $89,000, $88,000, and even $87,000) were successively breached, leading to a significant number of long positions being forced to close. The liquidation events amplified the downward movement in a short time, causing rapid capital outflow and instant tightening of market liquidity.

2. Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Policies and Regulatory Environment
   The international political and economic situation is turbulent, including changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, tightening regulations, and other macro and external policy news continuously impacting market confidence. Some news (such as the Federal Reserve chair selection, central bank regulations on stablecoins, and weakening global economic data) caused investors' risk appetite to plummet, leading to increasingly significant selling pressure during the market adjustment.

📈 Technical Analysis

This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data and the BTC/USDT trading pair:

• Price Trend and Moving Average Status

• The current price is running along the lower Bollinger Band, showing a clear weak trend.

• The price has consecutively fallen below the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA series moving averages, with the moving averages in a bearish arrangement, indicating that the downward trend still has strength.

• Indicator Signals

• The KDJ indicator shows a golden cross signal, but overall it remains in the oversold area, reflecting a potential short-term rebound, while long-term still faces downward pressure.

• The MACD histogram has been continuously narrowing, indicating heavy selling pressure, with strong downward momentum; at the same time, the RSI is in the oversold area, showing signs of a rebound in the short term.

• The steep downward slopes of EMA20 and EMA24 (at -1.14% and -0.97%, respectively) reinforce the judgment of short-term market risks.

• Liquidation and Trading Volume Dynamics
  In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $6 million, with long positions accounting for 78%, while the net outflow of major funds reached $30 million, indicating a shortage of market funds and strong risk-averse sentiment among investors.

🔮 Market Outlook

From the current candlestick trend and indicator signals, BTC may experience a phase rebound due to oversold effects, but the overall structure still leans towards a downward trend. Investors should remain vigilant about the following risk points:

• Continued Liquidation Risks
  In the context of high-leverage trading, the market remains susceptible to chain liquidation effects, and prices are likely to form a brief rebound near support levels before retracing again.

• Uncertainty in Macroeconomic and Regulatory Environment
  Future directions of Federal Reserve policy, global regulatory tightening, and other external factors will continue to impact market sentiment. Only when macro sentiment improves and liquidity conditions turn favorable can the market expect a longer-term rebound or stabilization.

• Technical Support and Bottom Signals
  Although some technical indicators show oversold conditions, the bearish arrangement of medium to long-term moving averages reminds us that short-term bottom signals are still difficult to shake the overall downward trend. Traders can focus on key support levels in the $85,000–$86,500 range; if prices effectively stop falling here, it may release subsequent rebound opportunities, but risk control is crucial to avoid being trapped by volatility.

Overall, the current BTC market is experiencing severe fluctuations, with emotions in a state of extreme uncertainty. Traders should closely monitor changes in news and technical indicators, manage positions, and control risks in a timely manner to cope with potential continuous oscillations and local rebounds.

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