As 2025 comes to a close, the crypto market has already entered a winter. The entire sector is experiencing low trading volumes and tight liquidity, with ETFs seeing net outflows for several weeks.

Amid widespread concerns about whether the "crypto winter" is returning, Wall Street has released what seems to be a favorable macro forecast: Bank of America (BofA) predicts that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will reach 2.4% in 2026.

But is a 2.4% growth enough to lift Bitcoin out of its slump? The answer is far from simple.

BofA's Optimism vs. JPMorgan's Concerns

BofA's 2.4% forecast is indeed impressive. They believe:

• The OBBBA fiscal bill will contribute an additional approximately 0.5 percentage points through consumer and business capital expenditures.
• The Federal Reserve will have started cutting interest rates in 2025, with effects fully released in the second half of 2026.
• Trade policies will shift to a more moderate stance, reducing tariff uncertainties.
• The AI investment boom will continue.
• Base effects will make the data look better.

At the same time, core PCE is expected to be 2.8%, and the unemployment rate will only slightly rise to 4.3%, creating a classic "soft landing + slightly sticky inflation" scenario.

However, JPMorgan has poured cold water on this optimism. They warn that 2026 will be a year of stress testing.

• Tariffs from the Trump era contribute nearly $350 billion in fiscal revenue annually and are facing a Supreme Court review, with an uncertain outcome.
• The U.S.-China competition over key minerals may lead to typical stagflation-style supply shocks.
• The midterm elections in 2026 are likely to flip the House of Representatives, increasing the risk of policy deadlock.

If tariffs persist, UBS predicts that core PCE could reach 3.2% in the first half of 2026 and linger above 2% for an extended period.

On the same 2026 canvas, BofA sees tailwinds, while JPMorgan sees reefs. However, what crypto investors truly care about is whether this 2.4% growth will bring liquidity or higher real yields.

The True K-Line for Bitcoin is Not GDP, But Real Yield

Data from the past eight years has repeatedly shown a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. real yields. When the 10-year TIPS yield falls to 0 or even negative, Bitcoin often enters a major upward trend (as seen in the two bull markets of 2020-2021 and the first half of 2023). Conversely, when real yields rise quickly above 1.5%, Bitcoin tends to experience significant corrections or even bear markets (2022 was a typical example).

Currently, the 10-year TIPS yield is approaching 2.2%, at a 15-year high. Both 21Shares and Binance Research point out that in the ETF era, Bitcoin has become thoroughly macro-oriented, with its pricing logic increasingly dependent on global liquidity and real yields rather than on-chain fundamentals.

In other words:

• A decline in real yields → Cash and short-term government bonds lose attractiveness → Funds rotate into long-duration, high Beta assets → Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs → Price rises
• Persistently high real yields → Cash and government bonds provide positive real returns → Bitcoin, as a zero-yield asset, is directly outperformed → Outflows from ETFs → Price pressure

The same lever can both lift a bull market and create deep pits.

BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and other spot ETFs now account for over 40% of Bitcoin's spot trading volume, with daily net inflows/outflows easily exceeding $1 billion.

If BofA's scenario comes true, traditional institutions could simply click a mouse to switch fixed income allocations to Bitcoin, making ETFs the strongest bullish leverage in 2026.

However, if JPMorgan's risks materialize one by one, real yields could linger above 2% for an extended period. At that point, a nominal U.S. Treasury yield of 4%-5% would be highly attractive to conservative funds, leading to continued redemptions from Bitcoin ETFs, potentially creating an awkward scenario in 2026 where the macro environment is strong, but Bitcoin is weak.

2.4% is Just the Background, Real Yield is the Protagonist

Ultimately, whether the U.S. economic growth rate in 2026 is 2.0% or 2.4% is not particularly important for Bitcoin. What truly determines its fate are the financial conditions accompanying that growth.

If growth is accompanied by falling inflation, declining real yields, and renewed liquidity, Bitcoin is likely to become the sharpest Beta tool in this round of "soft landing trades." Conversely, if growth is dragged into a "high inflation + high real yield" quagmire by tariffs, deficits, and geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin may continue to experience a long and painful relative bear market alongside superficially prosperous U.S. stocks.

Currently, with real yields high and ETF liquidity fragile, caution is still necessary in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, as long as the global economy remains within the framework of a rate-cutting cycle, there will come a day when real yields decline. That day will be Bitcoin's true opportunity for a comeback.

What investors need to do now is not to blindly bet on the 2.4% figure, but to closely monitor the direction of the 10-year TIPS yield. So, are you ready?

Related: Animoca bets on altcoin rises to attract investors, plans for an initial public offering (IPO)

Original: “U.S. GDP is projected to grow 2.4% in 2026; will Bitcoin ride an ETF-fueled bull market or plunge into a deep pit?”

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