Historical data shows that in the past seven years, Bitcoin has fallen before Thanksgiving in six of those years, but this year, a sudden bullish candlestick broke this "tradition." "Bitcoin returns to the $90,000 mark!" On the eve of Thanksgiving 2025, this news quickly spread among cryptocurrency investors.
At the same time, Ethereum also rose 3.5% to $3,026, with major cryptocurrencies like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin following suit.
This rise was unexpected, as just recently, Bitcoin had experienced its "worst week," plummeting over 30% from its historical high of $126,080 in early October, even dipping to a low of $81,000 at one point.
1. Breaking Tradition: The Mysterious Rise Before Thanksgiving
● Market participants noticed that Bitcoin's performance this year was markedly different from previous years. Historical data shows that the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is usually a "weak day" for Bitcoin. In the seven years from 2018 to 2024, Bitcoin fell on this day in six of those years, especially in 2020 and 2021, when there were "massive declines."
● However, this historical pattern was broken in 2025. Bitcoin not only rebounded before Thanksgiving but did so strongly from a recent slump. Bitcoin reached a high of $90,331 during the afternoon on Wednesday in the U.S., ultimately stabilizing around $90,050, with a daily increase of 3.2%.
● From last Friday's "panic bottom" near $80,000, Bitcoin has rebounded about 12% in just a few days. This rebound sharply contrasts with tradition, drawing widespread attention from the market.
2. Market Background: A Breather After the Plunge
This Bitcoin rebound is not an isolated event but occurs after the entire cryptocurrency market experienced a severe downturn. Not long ago, the market was filled with pessimism.
● In mid-November, Bitcoin fell to $80,600, marking the worst single-week performance since February. At that time, several analysts predicted that the sell-off might continue around Thanksgiving.
● This pessimistic sentiment was not unfounded. From the historical high of $126,080 in early October, Bitcoin dropped by over 30% in just over a month. This plunge also erased all gains Bitcoin had made since 2025. Market sentiment subsequently plummeted, with investors seeking safe havens.
3. Driving Forces: Macroeconomic Factors and Market Structure
The unusual rise in Bitcoin is the result of a combination of factors.
Macroeconomic Market Sentiment Warming Up
● Bitcoin's rebound coincided with a recovery in the U.S. stock market, particularly in tech stocks. Behind this phenomenon is the market's growing expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December. When the Fed cuts rates, cryptocurrencies typically perform well. However, there is still disagreement in the market about whether the Fed will indeed implement a third rate cut in December.
Liquidity Characteristics and Market Structure
● During the Thanksgiving holiday, while traditional stock markets are closed, the cryptocurrency market continues to trade. Market liquidity is relatively low during the holiday, meaning less capital can lead to significant market fluctuations.
● Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at cryptocurrency data provider Kaiko, noted: “If investors continue to close positions before the holiday, further liquidity depletion could exacerbate price volatility.”
Technical Rebound
● From a technical analysis perspective, this rise also has the nature of a rebound from overselling. Since last Friday's low, Bitcoin has rebounded by about 12%.
● Analysts at financial research firm Sevens Report warned that if selling pressure continues to intensify, market concerns could evolve into "full-blown panic." Fortunately, this worst-case scenario did not materialize.
4. Market Reaction: Optimism and Caution Coexist
Signals from the Options Market
Data from the options market shows that many traders expect Bitcoin to trade within a relatively narrow range.
● Jasper De Maere, a trading strategist at Wintermute, observed: “The market seems more willing to take contrarian positions on both sides rather than positioning for a breakout.” This stance sets the tone for the long weekend, during which lighter trading volumes typically limit major price movements.
Cautious Views from Analysts
● Unlike the market's optimistic sentiment, 10x Research takes a more cautious stance. They pointed out: “Bitcoin's best fourth quarter will only occur if there are clear catalysts.”
● The agency emphasized that while seasonal factors may justify a bullish default position, they “cannot identify any sufficiently strong catalysts to support this view for 2025.”
5. A Rocky Road Ahead: Potential Risks and Challenges
Despite Bitcoin's rebound before Thanksgiving, the market still faces multiple challenges.
Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Policy
● The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the biggest variable. 10x Research believes the market may be overly focused on the probability of rate cuts while overlooking the complexity of the macro backdrop. They noted that a third consecutive rate cut without dovish forward guidance could mislead the market.
Liquidity Pressure
● The structural issues within the cryptocurrency market cannot be ignored. The plunge in October liquidated a record $19 billion in open contracts, putting immense pressure on the market. This liquidity pressure may not have fully eased, especially with light trading volumes during the holiday.
6. The Truth About Thanksgiving Market Trends
Bitcoin's performance around Thanksgiving has always been full of variables. Looking back at the past four years during Thanksgiving, Bitcoin's price has experienced varying degrees of volatility, highlighting the impact of seasonal factors and sentiment on the cryptocurrency market.
● However, the Thanksgiving market is not a reliable bullish catalyst. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's performance at the end of the year has been mixed, and any significant rise requires substantial positive drivers rather than merely seasonal patterns.
● 10x Research emphasizes: “Bitcoin's performance during Thanksgiving and Christmas is highly unstable, unlike the U.S. stock market, which typically rises steadily during this period.” This perspective provides important context for understanding this year's unusual rise in Bitcoin—it may just be an exception rather than the beginning of a new trend.
Over more than a decade of Bitcoin's development, its price movements have always been elusive. Some analysts are skeptical about holiday market trends, with 10x Research stating in their report: “While the fourth quarter is usually the strongest period for Bitcoin, every significant year-end rebound has been driven by real catalysts rather than relying solely on seasonal patterns.”
Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can welcome the traditional "Santa Claus rally" in December or continue its unique trajectory will depend on further clarity regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, institutional capital flows, and other key factors.
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