Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Polymarket's prediction games have always been a feast for the few and a gamble for the many. Similar to the contract market, it is also filled with "black swan reversals," especially in sports upsets.
Today, we will discuss the fall of a trader once hailed as the "God of Sports Prediction"—Mayuravarma. This trader, with an ID reflecting the Indian caste style of "prediction veteran," managed to violently increase a principal of $5,000 to $3.8 million in just one month, achieving a profit of up to 760 times, and at one point ranked sixth on the sports profit leaderboard. However, as is often the case with peaks, within just a week, his assets were nearly wiped out.
Mayuravarma's experience once again confirms that the so-called "tail-end betting strategy" on Polymarket is unreliable. Betting events like sports competitions often have dramatic reversals at the last moment—you are not just betting on that bit of "certain profit," but rather your entire principal.
Next, let us review the collapse of this prediction myth.
The Rebirth of an Indian Noble as the "God of Sports Prediction": A Journey in the Prediction Market Starting from LOL Competitions
Mayuravarma began his journey in the prediction market with the LOL World Championship. According to his profile information, he placed a total of 9 bets during the LOL S15 World Championship, resulting in 6 wins and 3 losses, with a win rate of about 67%. Ultimately, his cumulative loss from LOL betting was around $20,000, while his profit was about $790,000, including:
- In the match between AL and T1, he bet $150,000 and won $162,500;
- In the finals between KT and T1, he bet $1.1 million and ultimately won nearly $600,000.
From E-sports to American Professional Sports Leagues: Mayuravarma's Path to Divinity
With the help of the annual world-class e-sports events, Mayuravarma successfully earned a net profit of about $770,000. After briefly betting on 3 LOL matches, he began his "path to becoming a god of sports event prediction," expanding his betting field from LOL e-sports to famous American professional leagues and various sports events—CFB (College Football), NHL (National Hockey League), NBA (National Basketball Association), and NFL (National Football League), among others.
Initially, Mayuravarma's betting could be described as "winning every bet": in 5 CFB events and 2 NHL matches, he achieved a return rate of about 30% to 82% through multiple bets, with one instance yielding a profit of up to $360,000.
Here, we can also see Mayuravarma's betting style: he tends to place pre-game bets, with amounts ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and rarely sells during the game. This not only allowed him to gradually roll over small funds into large results in the early stages but also set the stage for his later ALL IN attempt to turn the tide in an NHL match, which ultimately backfired.
After starting to bet on NFL games, his win rate suddenly dropped: in 5 NFL games, his win rate fell from the previous 100% in CFB betting to around 40%.
There are also 2 dramatic details worth elaborating on:
First, in an early NHL match between the Wild and Rangers, Mayuravarma bet on the Rangers to win at odds of 57:43, ultimately losing $275,000 in betting funds; in a subsequent NHL match, he again bet on the Devils, who had a higher win rate against the Wild, and with less than $120,000, he made a profit of $86,000, illustrating the randomness of the prediction market.
Second, in the NHL match on November 22 between the Wild and Penguins, he invested $1 million betting on the Penguins to win, but the Wild unexpectedly defeated the Penguins 5:0, resulting in a loss of his $1 million betting funds.
Subsequently, Mayuravarma began betting on NBA events, correctly predicting the Warriors to defeat the Lakers in 2 matches, with a single match profit of nearly $100,000, maintaining a temporary win rate of 50%.
The results of the subsequent betting events seemed somewhat mundane, but the process was smooth for Mayuravarma. He maintained a high win rate across LOL, NHL, and NBA matches, and from these betting interfaces, we can also see another aspect of his betting style: he prefers to bet on teams with higher pre-game winning chances and stronger capabilities, rather than hoping for upsets. This reflects Mayuravarma's deep attention and understanding of various sports events, providing a certain guarantee for his continued profitability, but it also left room for potential upsets.
After all, as the saying goes in football and various sports events: "Football is round, anything can happen." It could be an own goal, a heroic solo effort, or even an unintentional mistake by the referee. In summary, there are infinite possibilities in sports events, and every unexpected outcome is a gamble where the bettor stakes their real money.
The Potential Impact of the Prediction Market: When Money Becomes a Paper Number
With each betting event, Mayuravarma's betting amounts continued to increase, starting from $2,000, gradually rising to $30,000 to $50,000, and later, he would casually place bets of $100,000. In less than a month, he transformed from a "newbie in the prediction market" to a "betting whale" in the eyes of Polymarket market players.
From the following settlement records, it can be seen that during this phase, Mayuravarma was in a "normal distribution range":
- In 24 events, his win rate remained at 50%, with 12 successful bets and the rest failing;
- In the 12 failed bets, he invested a total of about $840,000, losing it all;
- In the 12 winning bets, he accumulated a profit of about $1.64 million, with a profit-loss ratio close to 2, meaning his profit was about 1.95 times his losses;
- The two largest losses came from NBA games, with one loss of $102,600 and another of $102,000;
- The largest profit came from an NHL match between the Bruins and Senators, where he invested $992,000 and made a profit of over $607,000.
Overall, during this phase, Mayuravarma's betting results were characterized by "losing less and winning more." Notably, in the NBA match between the Jazz and Trail Blazers, he finally learned to cut losses in time, investing $20,000 and ultimately losing less than $300 before exiting, avoiding a total loss.
Mayuravarma's betting event result records (from bottom to top, time is from early to late)
In the subsequent betting, Mayuravarma seemed to have found the trick of the prediction market again, returning to a "winning general" state: in 12 matches, he only failed in 3, winning all others. It was during this phase that he experienced his highlight moment:
In the CFB match between Houston and UCF, with a betting amount of $745,000, he ultimately achieved a profit of $687,200, with a profit rate of 92.25%, which is also the largest profit amount in his account to date, ranking first among 108 betting actions.
But then, perhaps like the cryptocurrency market where "after a new high, there must be a pullback," Mayuravarma, who experienced personal glory, faced his darkest moment: in the next 10 matches (including the previous one, totaling 11 matches), it was as if his good luck had run out, leading to a painful "10 consecutive losses," with accumulated losses reaching as high as $2.05 million.
Most of the events in which Mayuravarma suffered losses during this phase (8 out of 11) were NHL hockey events, which have an upset rate of about 30%, the highest among the four major professional leagues in the U.S., far exceeding that of NBA, MLB, and NFL events. This may have laid the groundwork for his eventual "misstep leading to total defeat."
“11 Consecutive Losses”
How a Gambler is Made: When Bettors are No Longer Satisfied with Small Bets
Perhaps like fengdubiying, who made millions by only betting on LOL e-sports events through skill and luck, after experiencing painful consecutive losses, LOL e-sports events became Mayuravarma's "turning point."
After betting on "T1 winning the LOL S15 World Championship" and earning a profit of $600,000, Mayuravarma found his "gambling luck" again, and his overall performance finally broke free from the downturn, starting to have both wins and losses.
However, by this time, he may have already become accustomed to treating "money as mere numbers" in betting, and his betting amounts were no longer limited to the previous $100,000 level, but instead increased to hundreds of thousands of dollars, even daring to bet $1 million with a profit rate of around 30%.
When a trader known for a "steady and conservative, only betting on strong teams" style changes his previously cautious trading attitude, it is undeniable that he has been influenced, to some extent, by the complex market environment and the obsession with "just wanting to win," and the outcome, of course, is evident.
Trading Records (from bottom to top, from early to late)
A Month of Ascendancy, a Week of Downfall: Mayuravarma's "Dynasty Road" Comes to an End
On November 14, through about a month of rapid maneuvering, Mayuravarma's personal profit scale surged from the initial $7,000 to nearly $3.9 million.
Mayuravarma's Account Profit Peak Data
However, just a week later, Mayuravarma faced consecutive defeats in NHL and CFB matches, bringing his profits close to zero:
- In the CFB match between Texas State and Southern Miss, he bet $1.2 million on Southern Miss to win, ultimately losing all his principal;
- In the NHL match between the Capitals and Canadiens, he went ALL IN again, investing $1.2 million on the Canadiens, who had a higher pre-game win rate, but failed to cut losses in time, losing nearly $1.2 million entirely. Within a week, his personal profit and loss data shifted from profit to a loss of -$3.8 million.
It was also on Saturday, November 22, after experiencing the rollercoaster of "gaining over $3.8 million and then giving it back," that Mayuravarma deleted his account on the X platform in frustration.
Subsequently, perhaps unwilling to become a laughingstock on Polymarket, Mayuravarma transferred another $1 million into his personal account and bet on various sports events again, but the final result was still more losses than wins.
As of the time of writing (November 26), Mayuravarma's personal account interface on Polymarket showed a cumulative loss of $885,000, with current holdings of about $278,500. This means that he not only gave back all his previous betting profits but also lost hundreds of thousands of dollars of his principal.
In a certain sense, in sports events where the outcome of team victories and defeats is bet upon, the prediction market of "one side wins and the other loses" is not much different from the contract market of "either up or down": in the limited choices available, the seemingly fewer options in the prediction market may be more brutal than the leveraged contract market. Many people find it difficult to cut losses in time when opening contracts, instead choosing to wait for the results to settle or hoping for an unexpected upset as the event nears its end. At that time, players lose not only their high hopes but also the precious principal they have painstakingly accumulated.
And under the automatic settlement mechanism at the end of events, the "winner takes all" nature of the prediction market appears even more ruthless.
Does ID Determine Fate? From fengdubiying to "The Creator of the Peacock Dynasty"
Perhaps the prediction market always carries a hint of mysticism— even the trader's ID seems like a mysterious spell, quietly influencing his profit and loss trajectory. Just like the fengdubiying we once interviewed, the ID Mayuravarma itself is a story. (Recommended reading: “Odaily Interview with the 'First Person in the Chinese Region of Polymarket': A 225 Times Profit Journey in 25 Days”)
In Sanskrit, the prototype of Mayura is "मयूर" (Mayūra), meaning "peacock," which symbolizes holiness and beauty in Indian culture; Varma is a common surname in South Asia, derived from the Sanskrit "वर्मन्" (Varman), meaning "protector" or "armor," often associated with the noble or warrior class; additionally, the Varma suffix is commonly found in the noble surnames of Kerala, India, implying the protective duties within the caste system.
Moreover, as mentioned in the personal profile of Mayuravarma on Polymarket, this ID has a certain connection to Mayurasharma, the founder of the Kadamba dynasty, which used the peacock as its dynasty symbol and ruled the area of present-day Karnataka, India. The latter's name implies "the protection of the peacock." Inscriptions from South India record that his name reflects the combination of Kshatriya (warrior class) and nature worship.
And just like the "Peacock Dynasty," which has vanished into the annals of history, Mayuravarma is merely a "trading footnote" in the rapidly developing prediction market.
It is foreseeable that legendary stars who suddenly become wealthy like him are still gearing up in the betting market of Polymarket, while there are also many traders who, like him, have fallen from grace and seen their assets wiped out. Like the "Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng, who repeatedly battles in the contract market, Mayuravarma is neither the first nor the last.
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