In the rapid development wave of Web3 finance, prediction markets, as a new frontier combining information and finance, are attracting increasing attention. On November 26, 2025, the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket received significant good news: it obtained approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to amend its designated order, allowing entry into the U.S. market through intermediary channels. This regulatory breakthrough has immediately drawn positive responses from institutional giants. Galaxy Digital, led by Mike Novogratz, is in talks to provide liquidity for Polymarket, marking an acceleration of institutional capital flowing into this highly potential sector. Prediction markets are moving from niche applications to mainstream finance, heralding the dawn of a new era of data-driven, transparent, and efficient Web3 finance.
- Polymarket's Regulatory Breakthrough: CFTC Approval Leads the Compliance Wave
The prediction platform Polymarket recently received regulatory approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enabling it to operate in the U.S. market in a compliant manner.
Amended Designated Order: On November 26, Polymarket announced that the CFTC had issued an amended designated order, allowing the company to "operate an intermediary trading platform, but must comply with all requirements applicable to U.S. federally regulated exchanges."
Direct Client Solicitation: This approval will enable Polymarket to directly solicit brokers and clients, facilitating trading in U.S. marketplaces and paving the way for its expansion in the U.S. market.
Market Position: Polymarket, along with Kalshi, dominates the market with a cumulative trading volume of approximately $42.4 billion. Initially rising rapidly after the announcement of the U.S. election results, Polymarket was once ahead. However, since September, the monthly trading volume of Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, has surpassed that of Polymarket.
- Galaxy Digital's Major Entry: Market-Making Strategy Empowers Prediction Markets
As Polymarket achieves a regulatory breakthrough, digital asset investment management firm Galaxy Digital is actively positioning itself to provide liquidity for prediction markets.
Market-Making Negotiations: According to Bloomberg, Galaxy Digital, led by Mike Novogratz, is in talks to provide liquidity for the prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.
Small-Scale Market-Making Experiment: Galaxy Digital is currently conducting small-scale market-making experiments in prediction markets and plans to offer broader liquidity on the platform in the future.
Enhancing Market Depth and Efficiency: The liquidity provided by Galaxy Digital will enhance the market depth and efficiency of both platforms. The company's participation boosts the industry's credibility and has the potential to improve the price discovery mechanism. Market-making activities typically reduce spreads and increase trading volume.
- Robinhood's Strategic Layout: Accelerating the Mainstreaming of Prediction Markets
Another heavyweight fintech company, Robinhood, is also making significant inroads into the prediction market space, further promoting its mainstreaming process.
Joint Ventures and Partnerships: On November 25, 2025, Robinhood expanded its prediction market services through a new joint venture and partnership with Susquehanna to operate a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse.
Innovative Products and Customer Experience: JB Mackenzie, Vice President and General Manager of Robinhood Futures and International Business, stated that Robinhood sees strong customer demand for prediction markets, and their investment in infrastructure will enable them to provide better experiences and more innovative products for customers.
Retail Demand and Distribution Channels: The independent exchange will be managed by a joint venture, with Robinhood Markets, Inc. as the controlling partner, providing strong retail demand and distribution channels. Leading market-making firm Susquehanna International Group has joined as a key partner and initial liquidity provider.
MIAXdx Acquisition: The joint venture will accelerate its service delivery by acquiring MIAXdx, a designated contract market (DCM), derivatives clearing organization (DCO), and swap execution facility (SEF) licensed by the CFTC.
Rapidly Growing Product Line: Prediction markets have quickly become Robinhood's fastest-growing product line. Within just one year of launch, over one million Robinhood users have traded 9 billion contracts. The exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026.
- Prediction Markets: Ecological Expansion from Niche to Mainstream
Prediction markets are evolving from their early focus on political and sports niches to a broader information market.
Mature Application Scenarios: Bernstein analysts point out that today, market demand is no longer limited to politics and sports but has expanded to areas such as economics, culture, business activities, and financial indicators. This expansion reflects the increasing maturity of prediction market application scenarios.
Growing Institutional Interest: Both Polymarket and Kalshi have gained support from heavyweight partners through separate or collaborative agreements, including Galaxy Digital, Google Finance, and the National Hockey League. These partnerships indicate a growing interest from institutional investors in prediction markets.
Expanded Competitive Landscape: Other major players in the cryptocurrency and financial sectors, such as Gemini and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), are also seeking to enter this field through their respective platforms.
Conclusion:
Polymarket's approval from the CFTC and Galaxy Digital's significant entry into market-making signify that prediction markets are entering a new stage of compliance and institutional development. Meanwhile, Robinhood's proactive layout is also accelerating the mainstreaming process of prediction markets. With its unique advantages in the information and finance sectors, prediction markets are transitioning from niche applications to a trillion-dollar blue ocean, becoming an important part of the new era of Web3 finance.
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