BTC traders are experiencing one of the fastest panic sell-off events since the end of 2022, but a market analysis expert indicates that historical data clearly shows that $80,000 has formed a market bottom.
Key Points:
A Bitcoin analyst predicts that the probability of BTC's weekly close not falling below the current low is as high as 91%.
The NVT golden cross indicator suggests that BTC's market value may be severely undervalued, providing an opportunity window for short-term long strategies.
Arthur Hayes' macro liquidity signals and the rapid recovery of on-chain data together support the assertion of a bottom range between $80,000 and $85,000.
BTC analyst Astronomer points out that the current market's bearish sentiment of "waiting for a clear trend" and claims that the bull market is about to end actually appear at the most inappropriate time.
According to an analysis based on a sell-off volume model using three rules of weekly candlestick charts, this model predicts cycle bottoms by identifying three consecutive high-volume bearish candles, a pattern that typically appears before significant market reversals.
In 11 historical cases, this sell-off pattern produced highly consistent results. In two cases, BTC rebounded about 35% before the broader downtrend continued.
More importantly, in 8 out of the 11 cases, this pattern marked the beginning of a new upward cycle, ultimately leading to new all-time highs. Only one case showed a continued decline, making it a clear statistical outlier.
Astronomer stated, "These data predict a 91% chance of reaching $118,000 from the current price, with a 99% probability of hitting $112,000, and a 75% chance of a broader bull market continuing."
The analyst particularly emphasized that market sentiment is the real trap; choosing to sell now or wait for trend confirmation actually aligns with the typical behavior pattern of cautious groups, accompanied by the risk of chasing the next local high.
Meanwhile, the BTC network value to transaction volume (NVT) golden cross indicator has dropped to -1.6, a value that typically indicates the market is severely undervalued, providing a good opportunity for short-term mean reversion strategies. However, cryptocurrency trader Darkfost warns investors against using leveraged trading in the current volatile environment.
Cointelegraph reports that Arthur Hayes insists that BTC's recent drop to $80,500, a 35% retracement, marks the bottom of this cycle, citing the impending end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening cycle and an increase in U.S. bank loans as evidence.
With liquidity improving, Hayes expects a "rising tide effect" in cryptocurrencies. Hayes stated, "We will oscillate below $90,000, possibly dipping to the low $80,000 range, but $80,000 will hold." He believes the next upward move will be driven by liquidity expansion rather than market sentiment.
On-chain data supports this view. CryptoQuant data shows that BTC has just recorded the largest net realized loss since the FTX collapse, but the market almost immediately turned positive.
This rapid absorption of forced selling indicates that floating supply has been washed out of the market, which, if traditional market conditions remain stable, will allow BTC to hold the $80,000 to $85,000 range.
Related: Death Cross and $96,000 Rebound: 5 Things Bitcoin (BTC) Needs to Know This Week
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Data Calls $80K the Bottom, Analysts Say BTC Bulls Are Back”
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