Key Points:
The ZEC chart reflects a parabolic trend before the BNB crash, suggesting a potential pullback to the $220–$280 range.
Analysts warn that despite some cryptocurrency veterans being bullish in the long term, there is a "pump and dump" dynamic in paid promotions.
Zcash (ZEC) has fallen about 30% from its peak of $750 in November, raising concerns about larger future losses, with some analysts warning of a possible "pump and dump."
As of Monday, Zcash is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the four-hour chart, reflecting traders' indecision following a 1500% price increase since the end of September.
This setup also follows a rebound from the 200-4H Exponential Moving Average (200-4H EMA; blue line), a key support trendline, suggesting a potential move towards the triangle's upper boundary near the 0.786 Fibonacci level in November, priced at $686.
The symmetrical triangle can break in either direction based on broader market sentiment.
In the case of ZEC, market sentiment remains weak, influenced by uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and overvaluation in the AI sector, which are hurting risk assets.
Therefore, if macroeconomic conditions persist in the coming weeks, a breakdown below the triangle's lower boundary seems to be the most likely outcome.
Such a move could push ZEC towards a downside target of $282 by early 2026, approximately 50% lower than current levels.
This level aligns with the local high established in early October and the 20-period EMA on the weekly chart (represented by the green wave).
According to trader Nebraskangooner, the current structure of Zcash resembles the parabolic rise and crash of BNB before, followed by a significant pullback.
Similar to BNB's setup in 2021, ZEC has lost momentum after excessive gains. Its price has failed to regain the parabolic support as Zcash bulls predicted a $1000 target in early November.
As Nebraskangooner pointed out, this pattern typically indicates at least a 60% deeper retracement, bringing ZEC's potential downside target to the $220–$280 range.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin-focused venture capitalist and educator Mark Moss shared screenshots of outreach information from marketing agencies offering paid ZEC collaborations.
Market analyst Rajat Soni warned that the recent hype around ZEC might be aimed at "finding exit liquidity," citing false headlines incorrectly claiming that Fidelity analysts predicted Zcash could reach $100,000.
In the face of bearish trends, cryptocurrency moguls like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes and Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss remain bullish on Zcash, with the former expecting ZEC to reach $10,000.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Sharpe Ratio Nears Zero, a Rare Risk-Return Signal
Original: “Zcash Down 30% from November High: Will ZEC Price Crash Further?”
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