Bitcoin is precariously positioned below $90,000 as the monthly close for November approaches.
Bitcoin traders hope for a mild recovery, or even a return to the $100,000 mark after the brutal sell-off.
The price trend of Bitcoin still needs to contend with the follow-up effects of the latest "death cross" on the daily chart.
New data indicates that speculators are absorbing coins distributed by long-term holders.
The week of Thanksgiving brings a brief but data-heavy phase for risk assets.
As stocks fall into "extreme fear," sentiment in the crypto market is beginning to recover.
After hitting a recent local low of $80,500 last week, uncertainty around Bitcoin remains high as the November monthly close nears.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that $88,000 is currently acting as a price ceiling.
Trader opinions remain divided, with long-term bearish predictions intertwined with moderately optimistic views.
"Bitcoin has reclaimed the 4H SMA-20 for the first time in two weeks," trader BitBull noted in a post on X on Monday, referring to the 20-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart.
Further hope comes from Daan Crypto Trades, who believes that despite the major support collapse, the weekly structure remains "intact."
$BTC It is clear by now that Bitcoin has fully lost its Bull Market Support Band. This had roughly been supporting price all cycle, with a few smaller deviations below. But this recent move down has made it so there's over a $20K+ gap to get back to the band. At some point,… pic.twitter.com/dL15LFlMix
Meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe described Bitcoin's latest three-day chart candle as "excellent."
"These usually form at market bottoms, and given the current sentiment and indicators being more extreme than FTX, I wouldn't be surprised to see $BTC trading between $90-96K in the coming week," he told his followers on X.
Van de Poppe referenced the crypto market's reaction to the collapse of the FTX exchange at the end of 2022, which led to the final phase of the previous bear market.
The coming days will be a key test of strength for the Bitcoin market as prices emerge from classic bear market signals on the daily chart.
The latest "death cross" for BTC/USD formed on November 15, when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) fell below the 200-day equivalent line.
Its impact varies depending on Bitcoin's position in its price cycle, but under current conditions, a significant rebound is needed to prevent a long-term downtrend.
"Note that previous death crosses marked local lows in the market," commentator Benjamin Cowen wrote in a post on X last week.
Cowen warned that if such a "rebound" fails to materialize, the 200-day SMA will become a target for lower highs, extinguishing hopes for a return of the bull market.
"If there is no rebound within a week, it may drop again before a larger rebound back to the 200D SMA, marking a macro lower high," he emphasized.
The 200-day SMA is currently at $110,130.
As Cointelegraph reported, the price losing the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) two weeks ago caused a stir, as it had not seen a weekly candle close below this line since March 2023.
Updating X followers, trader and analyst Rekt Capital showed that the 50-week EMA is now aligning with the macro trend line, potentially strengthening its position as resistance.
"The 50-week EMA (purple) is roughly aligned with the macro downtrend (black)," he wrote on Sunday, accompanied by a chart.
Bitcoin's price volatility has triggered drastic changes in the investor community, with multi-month lows differentiating reactions.
New research from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant this week indicates that BTC supply is shifting from long-term holders (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs).
"Long-term holders are distributing and selling in large amounts, while short-term holders are buying and accumulating," contributor CryptoOnChain summarized in a "Quicktake" blog post.
The article examined the rolling 30-day position changes between LTH and STH entities, defined as holders of more than and less than 155 days, respectively.
While "distribution" characterizes LTH investors, newcomers, traditionally seen as more speculative in trading habits, are absorbing their coins.
"This group, typically driven by market excitement, is now 'accumulating' at high prices," CryptoOnChain continued, noting that the overall transfer has reached 63,000 Bitcoins.
Cointelegraph previously reported that speculators were caught off guard and panicked during the market pullback.
The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of this group—the ratio of profits and losses from on-chain moved coins—hit a 15-month low over the weekend, nearing 0.927.
The upcoming U.S. macro week may be shorter than usual due to Thanksgiving, but traders will have little time to rest.
The chain reaction of a government shutdown means a wealth of economic data is entering the market—each data release could impact sentiment and asset performance.
In the coming days, attention will be on September data, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index set to be released.
Third-quarter GDP and initial jobless claims will also be included, meaning traders' views on the economic outlook could change significantly by the start of Thanksgiving.
"We have a brief but busy week," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented on X.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported a weakening expectation for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
According to the latest odds from CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the expectation for a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed's December meeting is now about 70%.
In the latest edition of its regular analysis series "The Market Mosaic," trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that Fed officials' attitudes toward the outlook have become more hawkish.
"The minutes from the Fed's most recent rate-setting meeting also noted that 'many participants' suggested that 'keeping the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year' is appropriate," it observed.
Nevertheless, Mosaic Asset suggested that U.S. stocks are "oversold," and thus may see a classic Christmas rally by the end of the year.
"Recent breadth conditions also favor a rebound, which becomes a huge tailwind in this shortened holiday week," it added.
Last week, the daily relative strength index (RSI) of the S&P 500 briefly fell below 35, marking the lowest reading since April.
Crypto market sentiment shows initial signs of warming, surpassing the lowest readings in traditional markets.
The latest data from the Fear and Greed Index and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index provides bullish potential for crypto bulls.
After hitting a low for 2025 last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index nearly doubled, reaching 19/100 on Monday. Although still in "extreme fear" mode, this index contrasts with stocks, which helped their traditional financial equivalent index reach a low of only 11/100.
This is different from previous situations when crypto sentiment led risk assets lower. Now, the upward trend in crypto may signal a broader recovery for risk assets.
"Sentiment around Bitcoin on social media has officially dropped to its lowest point since December 11, 2023," research firm Santiment revealed on Friday.
Meanwhile, Kobeissi reiterated that there were no clear news or macro trigger factors in the pullback of the crypto and stock markets.
It believes that this pullback is "structural," more a result of leverage and liquidations.
It describes this round of adjustment as essentially "structural," largely stemming from leverage and liquidations.
"Leverage is amplifying changes in investor sentiment," a related thread on X stated.
Related: Plume CEO predicts RWA will grow 3 to 5 times by 2026 as its development surpasses native cryptocurrency users
Original article: “Death Cross vs. $96K Rebound: 5 Things to Know About Bitcoin (BTC) This Week”
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