Event Review 🔍

Yesterday evening, the ETH market experienced a round of intense price fluctuations. Shortly after the market opened, the ETH price was positioned at around $2718. Subsequently, market sentiment changed drastically, and within just 50 minutes, the price plummeted from a high of about $2718 to around $2620~$2624, a decline of approximately 3.3% to 3.48%. After a period of selling pressure release, the market saw a brief rebound, and the price has now recovered to about $2731. The entire process demonstrated the alternating panic selling and subsequent bottom-fishing behavior of investors under the uncertainty of macro expectations and high leverage risks.

Timeline ⏱️

• 19:30: ETH opened at around $2718. At this time, due to uncertainties in macro policies and high leverage risk warnings, bullish sentiment in the market began to waver, with investors fearing that a decline would trigger forced liquidations.
• 19:30–20:20: In the next 50 to 51 minutes, the ETH price rapidly fell: one set of data showed a drop from $2718 to $2624 (a decline of 3.48%), while another set showed a drop from $2709 to $2620 (a decline of 3.30%). During this period, bullish positions triggered forced liquidations, leading to a surge in selling pressure and a rapid depletion of liquidity.
• 20:50: After hitting the bottom, a rebound occurred, with some funds entering to buy the dip, and the price recovered to about $2731.36, showing signs of temporary stabilization.

Reason Analysis 🎯

The recent sharp drop in ETH was mainly influenced by two factors:

1. Uncertainty in Macro Policies and Liquidity Expectations

• Recent cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials, divergences in the meeting minutes regarding interest rate cut prospects, and the "disruption" in the timing of key economic data releases have heightened market concerns about future liquidity and interest rate changes.
• Issues such as policy delays and government shutdowns have led investors to generally reduce their risk exposure, and this sentiment quickly spread to the crypto asset market, triggering the withdrawal of stable funds.

1. Leverage Risks and Forced Liquidation Impact

• High leverage trading is prevalent in the current market, with many institutions and whales using high leverage on main chain assets like ETH.
• During the price decline, the triggered forced liquidation effect led to a concentrated explosion of sell orders, exacerbating liquidity depletion and creating a chain reaction that caused prices to plummet sharply in a short time.

Technical Analysis 📊

[Data Source] Based on 45-minute K-line data from Binance's USDT perpetual contracts, observing the ETH/USDT trading pair. The main technical indicators are as follows:

• KDJ and OBV Signals

• The KDJ indicator shows a divergent state, while the OBV crosses above its moving average, suggesting that buying interest is entering the market, and market activity has increased.

• Increased Trading Volume

• Trading volume increased by 55% compared to usual, with the 10-day average volume rising by 34.55% and the 20-day average volume rising by 24.20%, indicating enhanced trading enthusiasm in the short to medium term, but at the same time reflecting the concentrated release of panic selling pressure.

• K-line Patterns and Moving Average Arrangement

• A doji pattern has appeared on the K-line, indicating that the market is in a state of indecision, or suggesting that the trend may enter a reversal zone.

• MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bearish arrangement, and the price is below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120, overall showing a long-term downward structure; among them, the slope of EMA120 is -0.57%, and the slopes of EMA24 and EMA52 are -0.98% and -0.84%, respectively, confirming a bearish trend in the medium to long term.

• Notably, the MACD histogram has been continuously increasing, and the RSI has broken through the upward trend line, while the TD Sequential has entered a bullish Setup phase (7/9), indicating the possibility of a rebound in the short term, suggesting that some funds have begun to buy the dip.

• Market Explosion and Large Transactions

• In the past hour, the total amount of explosive orders across the network reached $20 million, with long positions accounting for 69%. At the same time, data on large transactions showed a net outflow of about $30 million, further corroborating the market's short-term volatility and capital replacement.

Market Outlook 🚀

Currently, although ETH has experienced a sharp decline, the brief signs of rebound indicate that the market has begun to absorb some of the bottom. Such intense fluctuations are often accompanied by structural adjustments in the market, and future trends may present the following aspects:

• Short-term Support and Rebound Possibility

• In the short term, due to some indicators (MACD, RSI, TD Sequential) showing positive signals, along with signs of capital bottom-fishing, the price may stabilize or rebound around the current level. However, caution is needed as the long-term moving average arrangement remains bearish, limiting the rebound extent, and adjustment fluctuations may still occur.

• Long-term Downward Risk Still Exists

• Against the backdrop of continued tightening of macro liquidity and high leverage risks not being fully digested, ETH prices still face downward pressure in the long term. Large-scale forced liquidations may continue to release sell orders, and if the short-term rebound cannot effectively convert into new support, it may trigger deeper adjustments.

• Risk Management and Position Adjustment Recommendations

• For holders, it is recommended to strengthen risk management, timely deploy to reduce leverage risks, pay attention to market trends, and wait for signals of improvement in macro fundamentals and liquidity recovery. Investors should closely monitor subsequent economic data releases and Federal Reserve policy trends to assess changes in overall market liquidity and shifts in risk appetite.

In summary, ETH is currently undergoing a severe "washout" process influenced by multiple factors. Although short-term signals suggest a possible rebound, market sentiment remains cautious under the dual pressure of macro uncertainty and leverage effects. It is advisable for investors to remain calm, reasonably adjust their positions, and wait for clear signs of improvement in the industry and macro environment before making further arrangements.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。