I. Overall Market Situation: Rebound Window Period Under Bearish Dominance
On November 20, 2025, the market experienced a significant decline, with BTC and ETH simultaneously breaking through multiple short-term support levels, indicating a notable continuation of the bearish trend. From a news perspective, the current core negative factors have been fully released, but there remains uncertainty for further developments, leading to a cautious overall market sentiment. However, the technical analysis shows that the two major cryptocurrencies have reached key support areas, combined with a short-term oversold effect, forming a phase of rebound window. At this time, it is necessary to abandon the irrational operation of "blindly chasing shorts" and shift to a short-term strategy of "betting on long positions at support levels."
II. Technical Analysis of Core Cryptocurrencies and Key Price Levels
(A) Bitcoin (BTC): Support at the Lower Bollinger Band + K-Line Stabilization Signal
Current Technical Status: As of November 21, 10:26, BTC is priced at 86560, situated at the lower Bollinger Band area on the 4-hour chart. The last three 4-hour K-lines have not effectively broken below the previous support range of 86000-86200, forming a short-term stabilization trend. The energy bars indicate that while bearish momentum still prevails, there are signs of marginal weakening, necessitating close observation of whether the subsequent 12-hour K-line shows a volume contraction during a pullback.
Key Price Levels:
Support Levels: First support at 86184 (immediate short-term support), strong support at 82000 (key mid-term defense line);
Resistance Levels: First resistance at 89000 (core resistance for short-term rebound), second resistance at 90000 (key threshold for rebound continuation).
- Technical Logic Deduction: The lower Bollinger Band typically corresponds to short-term oversold areas, combined with the K-line's failure to break down effectively, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound. However, it is important to note that the overall market remains in a bearish pattern, and rebound momentum may be limited, requiring a short-term mindset.
(B) Ethereum (ETH): Multiple Support Resonance + Golden Cross Formation Expectation
Current Technical Status: ETH is currently touching multiple support areas, with the 4-hour line also at the lower Bollinger Band position. After a rapid decline in the early morning, there has been no further breakdown. From the 1-hour line perspective, if the key support at 2800 can be maintained, the probability of the MACD indicator forming a golden cross is high, providing technical support for a short-term rebound.
Key Price Levels:
Support Levels: Strong support at 2800 (must decisively stop loss if broken), short-term support at 2840 (starting point for long position betting);
Resistance Levels: First resistance at 2900 (short-term rebound target), second resistance at 3038, third resistance at 3100 (important mid-term resistance).
- Technical Logic Deduction: The combination of multiple supports and the demand for an oversold rebound highlights the short-term betting value of ETH. However, the effectiveness of 2800 as a key support level directly determines whether the rebound can continue, making this price level a core reference for stop-loss.
III. Practical Trading Strategies: Focus on Short-Term Long Positions, Prioritize Defense
(A) Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Strategy
Entry Range: 86100-86500 (build positions in batches based on the support range);
Target Setting: Tiered take profit, first target at 87500 (1000 points space), second target at 88000 (1500 points space), third target at 88500 (2000 points space);
Stop-Loss Setting: Decisively stop loss and exit if breaking below the 86000 support level;
Subsequent Operations: When rebounding to the 8900 resistance level, if there are signs of weakening momentum, consider reversing to short positions; if effectively breaking above 8900 with increased volume, a small long position can be pursued, with stop-loss set below 88500.
(B) Ethereum (ETH) Trading Strategy
Entry Range: Around 2840 (build positions after confirming support);
Target Setting: First target at 2850 (quick profit for short-term), second target at 2900 (core rebound target);
Stop-Loss Setting: Strictly stop loss immediately if breaking below 2800 to avoid deep losses;
Subsequent Operations: When rebounding to the 3038-3100 range, consider laying out short positions based on K-line patterns and volume conditions to seize opportunities for long-short transitions.
IV. Core Principles of Risk Control
Position Management: The current market remains in a bearish pattern, and short-term long positions should control their positions to avoid heavy betting. It is recommended that the position in a single cryptocurrency does not exceed 30% of total funds;
Stop-Loss Discipline: Strictly implement stop-loss strategies, avoid stubbornly holding positions, and exit immediately if breaking below key support levels to preserve trading capital;
Emotion Management: Abandon irrational beliefs such as "must drop every Friday," as the market is essentially a game where a few profit. Decisions should be based on technical analysis and key price levels, avoiding herd behavior;
Dynamic Adjustment: Continuously monitor K-line patterns, volume changes, and key price level breakthroughs/breakdowns, flexibly adjust trading strategies based on market feedback, and avoid rigid thinking.
V. Core Insights from the Market
In the context of a unilateral decline in the cryptocurrency market, the key to capturing short-term rebound opportunities lies in "confirming technical support + betting on key price levels." Both BTC and ETH have reached the lower Bollinger Band support, combined with the oversold effect, forming a phase of rebound window. However, it is essential to clarify that rebound ≠ reversal, and the focus should be on short-term trading, targeting a certain profit space of 1000-2000 points.
At the same time, there are no absolute rules in the market; traders must respect market uncertainty and prioritize risk control. If positions are trapped due to not following the strategy, timely stop-loss or seeking professional guidance is necessary to avoid greater losses caused by emotional decision-making. Continuous attention should be paid to the effectiveness of core support levels such as 82000 (BTC) and 2800 (ETH), as well as the breakthrough situations of resistance levels such as 8900 (BTC) and 3038 (ETH), dynamically adjusting trading logic.
Strategy Sharing for November 21
Bitcoin: Enter long positions at market price 86400-86500, take profit at 87500-88000-88500
Ethereum: Enter long positions at market price 2820-2840, take profit at 2850-2900
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