Hello everyone, I am Lao Lu. The dual currency has fallen as expected, but Ethereum has still held the support at $2900. In our last article, we continued with the idea of a cyclical decline, completely disregarding technical analysis, because the current price trend has little technical basis; it’s just a matter of spiking high and then refreshing the lows. Since $3650, it has been repeatedly constructing a downward channel. In the current price trend, whether bullish or bearish, it’s all about hitting key points. Once a key point is crossed, it usually leads to significant moves. Last time, we emphasized several key points: the first point is whether Ethereum can break the $2900 support; the second point is that when shorting, it’s crucial to manage the gains and adjust the stop-loss, otherwise, it’s easy to lose the shorting space; the third point is that Bitcoin can quickly rebound and repair indicators in the short term, then refresh the lows. It is precisely by grasping these key points that we can navigate smoothly. Each step in these three is basically critical, mentioning the profit space for bears and specific operational techniques. In fact, most people just go through the motions, looking at the conclusion and then ending it.

Bitcoin: We have a good grasp of the price point, opening a short at $93400, which can be said to be the starting point of this round of decline, with a minimum of $88555, a drop of $5000. It’s easy to make a quick $3000. This also confirms Lao Lu's saying that the entry price is always better than the current trend. Today, we mainly discuss two technical points for shorting Bitcoin. The main theme of shorting is the trend; both the weekly and daily charts are weak, which is undeniable. The key is still the entry point. From the 15th to the 17th of this month, the price rebounded twice from the bottom at $93900. Even after the drop on the 17th, which seemed to break through, the price quickly recovered after touching $93900 twice on the four-hour chart, proving the strength of this double bottom formation. However, starting from the 18th, the entire structure changed, with six consecutive bearish candles, and the entity broke down to around $89200. Such a significant break usually does not involve a false break. Therefore, after the second rebound, $93900 is a must-short position. Looking at the hourly chart, since $96000, there have been no decent bullish candles, indicating an absolute weak market. However, considering that the current market is not in a continuous decline but rather a rebound refreshing the lows, it can also be defined as a wide oscillation market. In this clear downward trend with a defined resistance at $93900, the 0.618 position is also a must-short position. Taking $96000 as the starting point for the decline and $89250 as the low, the 0.618 position is exactly $93421, which is only a $500 difference from $93900. Therefore, our normal stop-loss of $800 is completely sufficient, which is the entire thought process behind clearly shorting at $93400 in our article. Thus, when shorting, we sometimes need to focus not only on entering the market but also on whether the $800 stop-loss is manageable. If the current price is $1500 or even $2000 away from your expected entry point, entering too early may lead to a stop-loss, and for the next trade, whether you can achieve a profit of $2000.

Ethereum: Last time we provided a strong resistance at $3180, all within a controllable range. There is basically no technical basis; it’s just observing a downward trend channel line. The entire downward chart has already been constructed in our previous article, and those interested can refer to that chart and practice drawing it themselves. Currently, Ethereum is continuously refreshing its lows, and each time the starting point of the decline is lower than the previous one, starting from $3650. Therefore, the entire trading strategy does not need to rely on technical analysis but rather on the rules of decline, continuing to short based on the pressure from the top of the channel line. As long as the price remains within the downward channel, it is basically a short, unless there is a significant rise that breaks the trend.

Today: Written by Lao Lu at 11:00 AM on November 20, 2025. Note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused! Follow the text version and specific entry prices in the lower right corner of the image or video.

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