After more than 40 days of government shutdown in the United States, which resumed in mid-November, market participants initially expected this move to inject a boost into crypto assets. However, Bitcoin (BTC) and the overall crypto market failed to regain momentum as hoped: on Tuesday (November 18), Bitcoin not only fell below the key psychological support level of $100,000 but also briefly dipped below $90,000, wiping out all gains made this year.
Macroeconomic liquidity remains tight, regulatory expectations are still unclear, and risk appetite has not significantly rebounded, making crypto assets particularly weak in the "thawing" market after the restart. The market has begun to question whether this sell-off is merely a short-term fluctuation or the beginning of a deeper bear market.
In 2025, Bitcoin had repeatedly set new highs, breaking through the historical peak of $126,000 on October 6, but quickly retreated a few days later. Since that peak, Bitcoin has cumulatively fallen over 28%, with signs of a bear market becoming increasingly evident, currently trading around $90,000.
From a technical perspective, although on-chain data has not yet shown systemic risk, the recent "death cross" structure remains concerning. The most critical technical level for Bitcoin has always been the 50-week moving average. In the past 13 years, whenever Bitcoin has fallen below the 50-week moving average during a bull market cycle, it has often signaled the end of the rally, typically followed by a deep decline within one to two years (excluding the flash crash during the pandemic). Last week, Bitcoin just fell below this key moving average.
In addition, adverse macroeconomic factors have also cast a shadow over the crypto market. Currently, investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are fading. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now sees only a 48.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
Industry analysts believe that Bitcoin's recent decline exhibits a clear "two-phase" characteristic: first, a sell-off triggered by a deteriorating macro environment, followed by concentrated forced liquidations of leveraged positions, accelerating the downward trend. Meanwhile, long-term funds remain relatively optimistic, believing that the underlying logic of digital assets has not wavered, and many investors still view Bitcoin as a core asset to hedge against currency devaluation, inflation, and long-term easing policies.
Alessio Quaglini, CEO of Hex Trust, a digital asset solutions company, stated that the turning point in the market occurred on October 10, when U.S.-China trade tensions escalated, leading to a massive sell-off of risk assets. In the following days, the market experienced a "full-chain liquidation," with billions of dollars in leveraged positions being forcibly closed. Alessio remarked, "This is a liquidity reset, not a loss of confidence in the assets."
Kevin Kelly, portfolio manager of Bitcoin-related funds under Amplify ETF, pointed out that the continuous tightening of monetary policy by global central banks and the withdrawal of easing liquidity are key factors behind Bitcoin's weak performance. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve's delayed rate cut expectations, combined with the funding recapture effect of the Treasury's general account, have pressured market liquidity, making risk assets like Bitcoin increasingly sensitive to the macro environment.
"Overall, this is more a result of short-term liquidity tightness, persistent selling pressure, and weak sentiment, rather than a decline triggered by a single factor."
Now, despite a slight easing of U.S.-China tensions, the Bitcoin market still struggles to find support. Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, said, "Since the crash on October 10, market liquidity has been very thin, and with investors worried that the four-year cycle is about to end, even small trades can trigger severe price fluctuations."
With "big coins" falling, other crypto assets are even worse off. For instance, Ethereum (ETH) has dropped over 35% from its August high of $4,954.
Some voices suggest that this adjustment is significantly different from past fluctuations and may even be difficult to reverse in the short term. Alessio bluntly stated that the current situation is not like in 2022; there is no credit crisis, no chain bankruptcies, and no systemic risk. What the market needs to face seriously is that this round of correction may not be over yet, and if the crypto market continues to decline, Bitcoin is likely to retest the low of $70,000.
Jeff Mei, COO of the cryptocurrency trading platform BTSE, also believes that Bitcoin still exhibits typical risk asset characteristics, and with AI valuations under scrutiny and unclear rate cut expectations, further price declines remain possible.
In previous bear markets, institutional participation was relatively low. However, Bitcoin has now developed into a more mature asset class, with significant increases in institutional adoption and market liquidity. For example, traditional financial giants, including JPMorgan, have begun accepting Bitcoin as collateral, further confirming that the institutionalization process is accelerating.
Additionally, according to data from CryptoQuant, most investors selling Bitcoin are still in a net profit position. In other words, the market has not yet seen a true "surrender" selling pressure or large-scale margin calls. Retail investors have not chosen to actively "buy the dip" during this round of correction, but whales in the crypto market are still accumulating at lower levels.
According to a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Strategy on Monday, the company purchased $835.6 million worth of Bitcoin in the seven days ending last Sunday, marking its largest Bitcoin purchase since July. This brings its total Bitcoin holdings to 649,870 coins, valued at approximately $61.7 billion.
Regarding the next steps, analysts believe investors should remain cautious. Peter Chung advises retail investors not to attempt to time the market frequently during short-term fluctuations; a more prudent approach is to invest through dollar-cost averaging and small incremental purchases for long-term positioning, focusing on understanding the actual value of underlying networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than being swayed by emotional market news.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, pointed out that long-term investors should pay attention to macro signals rather than just technical trends, as Bitcoin's upside potential depends on whether global liquidity can remain accommodative.
Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Asset Management, believes that the current price may be attractive to strategic investors: "From the current price perspective, this is a relatively reasonable entry point, and the overall layout is quite constructive." He revealed that the number of crypto investment clients the company has received in the past quarter has reached a seven-year high.
Related: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) did not specifically mention cryptocurrencies in its 2026 review focus.
Original: “Bitcoin Plummets Below Key Level: $90,000 in Danger, Will $70,000 Be Next?”
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