According to analysts, if XRP fails to achieve a meaningful rebound soon, it may decline further, as 41.5% of XRP holders are currently underwater at the current price.
Cryptocurrency analysis firm Glassnode posted on X platform on Monday that the "XRP profitable supply" has reached its lowest level since November 2024, when the price was around $0.53.
Glassnode stated, "Today, despite the trading price being about four times higher ($2.15), 41.5% of the supply (approximately 26.5 billion XRP) is in a loss state—this clearly indicates a top-heavy market structure that is structurally fragile, dominated by late buyers."
IG Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph that the recent price drop may have caught many XRP investors off guard, and the top-heavy structure means that if the downtrend continues, some may consider stop-loss measures.
Sycamore said, "Data suggests that many XRP holders may have bought in when XRP was above $3.00 (in January, July, August, September, and early October), making their entry points significantly higher than the current level of about $2.16."
He added, "The drop of over 40% from the July high of $3.66 has left long-term holders expecting a permanent rise and new entrants who bought near the peak due to FOMO, viewing the pullback as a buying opportunity, caught off guard."
Sycamore indicated that this widespread unrealized loss is currently dampening market sentiment and increasing the risk of further declines, as stop-loss and forced selling may add to the selling pressure.
He stated, "A recovery requires a decisive rebound in price above $2.70."
However, one factor that holders hope will help XRP regain bullish momentum is the anticipated wave of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) set to launch this week.
Following Canary Capital's launch of the first spot XRP ETF on Thursday (marking one of the most successful first-day performances for a U.S. ETF in 2025), four more ETFs from Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, 21Shares, and CoinShares are just days away from launch.
However, the price has yet to show signs of recovery. As of the time of writing, XRP is currently at $2.14, down over 40% since reaching an all-time high of $3.65 on July 18.
Related: XRP traders anticipate a new wave of ETF launches to revive bullish trends
Original article: “Analysts Warn XRP is 'Structurally Fragile' with 41.5% of Supply at a Loss”
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