Key Points:
Long-term Bitcoin holders have transferred large amounts of funds to exchanges, raising concerns about long-term confidence under the potential impact of quantum computing.
Despite strong capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, market sentiment has not improved, with traders instead turning to rapidly rising privacy coins like ZEC and DCR.
Since early November, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain levels above $106,000, even as the S&P 500 index is just 1% away from its all-time high. Meanwhile, gold, as a traditional store of value, has recovered some recent losses and is now only 4% away from its previous record of $4,380.
Many traders believe that some unique factors in the cryptocurrency industry may be affecting Bitcoin's performance, but are these factors enough to prevent it from challenging $112,000 again?
Recently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened against a basket of major currencies, reflecting renewed market confidence in the US Treasury's ability to address fiscal challenges. When investors are concerned about stagnating economic growth and persistent inflation—known as a "stagflation" scenario—domestic currencies typically weaken as monetary expansion becomes inevitable.
As a result, traders often emphasize the long-standing negative correlation between DXY and Bitcoin prices. In contrast, the US stock market tends to benefit from a stronger dollar and lower interest rates. Lower borrowing costs enhance corporate valuations, while favorable exchange rates make imported goods more affordable when priced in local currency.
Companies adopting a Bitcoin reserve strategy, such as Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (MTPLF), were among the largest corporate buyers, especially when their stock premiums exceeded the underlying asset. The mNAV multiple reflects this relationship, indicating the ratio of the value of Bitcoin held by the company to its corporate valuation.
Recent pullbacks in the cryptocurrency market have largely erased this advantage, leaving companies lacking the incentive to issue new shares. At current price levels, any new issuance would dilute existing shareholder equity, making this option unattractive without a significant mNAV premium.
These companies can still finance through debt or convertible notes, but such financing methods are often less favorable to investors. Creditors typically require collateral, which effectively reduces the amount of Bitcoin counted in the company's enterprise value, thereby limiting mNAV growth potential.
As long-term Bitcoin holders, including those from 2018 and earlier, began selling during the 20% price pullback from the historical high of $126,220, anxiety among Bitcoin investors has intensified. One notable case involves Owen Gunden—a trader who was active during the collapse of Japan's Mt. Gox and is said to hold over $1 billion in Bitcoin.
In just the past week, Owen transferred over 1,800 Bitcoins, worth more than $200 million, to the Kraken exchange. While transfers from long-dormant addresses are not uncommon, traders question whether these actions reflect a weakening of long-term confidence, especially in the context of growing concerns over quantum resistance and the significant rise of privacy cryptocurrencies.
Zcash has surged 99% in the past 30 days, Decred is up 74%, Dash has risen 37%, and Monero is up 22%. Despite a net inflow of $524 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, buyer sentiment remains low, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to return to $112,000 in the short term.
The combined effects of long-term holders selling, the continued strength of the dollar, and the rising popularity of privacy tokens are collectively constraining Bitcoin's rebound, keeping prices below $106,000 and suggesting limited upside potential in the future.
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Related: 8 Cryptocurrencies That Will Define the Crypto Industry in 2025
Original: “Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Struggles to Overcome Each New Overhead Resistance Level”
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