Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that the crypto market has entered the "fall" of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, advising investors to take profits before a potential winter arrives.
In an episode of the podcast titled "Cryptocurrency Goes Mainstream," Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, stated that historical data shows a consistent pattern of three rises followed by one decline in Bitcoin's price cycles. Galindo urged investors to take profits before the crypto winter sets in.
"We are currently in the fall," he said. "Fall is the season for harvesting. So, now is the time you want to take profits. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will begin."
The "harvest" analogy suggests that major executives on Wall Street are recognizing the market rhythm of Bitcoin through a cyclical investment framework, similar to commodity or liquidity-driven macro cycles.
On November 5, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $99,000, breaking key macro indicators and reigniting discussions about market conditions. According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, this caused BTC to drop below its 365-day moving average.
The 365-day moving average of Bitcoin is a technical indicator that typically indicates the overall direction of the market. Analysts state that this indicator is one of the most important measures of sentiment. This decline is widely viewed as a strong bearish signal.
Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima previously told Cointelegraph that this drop "officially marks a technical bear market."
In addition to last week's decline in Bitcoin, crypto market maker Wintermute stated that key drivers of market liquidity have stagnated.
In a blog post, Wintermute noted that stablecoins, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been the main sources of crypto liquidity.
Despite Bitcoin's continued volatility, institutional investor sentiment remains optimistic.
Michael Cyprys, head of Morgan Stanley's research department for U.S. brokerage, asset management, and exchange businesses, stated in the podcast that despite high volatility, institutional investors have begun to view Bitcoin as a legitimate component of diversified portfolios.
"Some institutional investors see Bitcoin as digital gold, or as a macro hedge against inflation and currency devaluation," Cyprys pointed out, adding that the emergence of ETFs has made investment exposure more convenient, "but this is still a point of debate in the market."
He added that the pace of institutional capital allocation is typically slower, as large investors cannot immediately adjust their investment strategies or asset allocations due to their internal processes, risk committees, and long-term investment mandates.
However, he noted that as the regulatory environment improves and ETF infrastructure becomes more robust, the barriers to entry have significantly lowered, and institutional adoption is accelerating. Cyprys emphasized that spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have brought billions of dollars in assets under management (AUM) to the market.
According to SoSoValue data, the net asset value of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has now exceeded $137 billion, while the net asset value of spot Ethereum ETFs is approximately $22.4 billion.
Related: Canary Capital files indicate that a spot Ripple (XRP) ETF may launch this week.
Original article: “Morgan Stanley Says Bitcoin (BTC) Has Entered 'Fall Cycle,' It's 'Harvest Season'”
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