Master Discusses Hot Topics:

It is said that the government shutdown issue has finally dragged into the House of Representatives, and we are about to see a resolution. The House is controlled by the Republicans, and as long as they don't create chaos, this 44-day farce should come to an end tonight. Trump has also made it clear that he supports ending the shutdown, so it’s basically settled.

Once the Americans reopen, liquidity will flow back into the market, and the global funds that have been held back for nearly two months can finally breathe a sigh of relief. But don’t think this is the savior of a bull market; the return of funds is just a relief, not an explosion, and the bear market foundation is still there.

Now, let’s talk about that Besant's crypto ETF staking compliance announcement made early this morning, which sent the market into a frenzy. In fact, this started loosening up a few months ago; now it’s just an official announcement. ETH and SOL are likely to launch staking features within the year, which sounds very attractive, right?

But the rules are not set, and there are a lot of complicated processes. The only short-term effect is to boost sentiment. Do you really think institutions will rush in immediately? They are smart; they will wait for retail investors to rush in first and then cut you off.

Currently, the market is in panic, hesitation, and no one dares to act. The whole world is waiting for a lifeline, but new money in the market is almost cut off. Don’t even mention a surge; now the bulls have to see if the bears will give them a break to catch their breath.

Some say that once the Americans reopen, there will be a surge, citing data about the end of balance sheet reduction, imminent liquidity injection, poor employment, and interest rate cuts. The reality is that Bitcoin's daily chart has already fallen below the bull-bear boundary, and it has directly crashed from a high position.

Trying to act sophisticated in a bear market is self-deception. If you really want to be sophisticated, you have to be on the short side and go with the trend. Still, some people think that liquidity returning will lead to a skyrocket; the market is not supported by belief, but by funds. If the funds don’t come in, everything is meaningless.

Looking at on-chain data, new buyers are practically frozen. Since October 26, there has been a decline in new buyers, and now, two weeks later, it has not only not recovered but has shrunk even more. This is the most severe decline in six months; don’t think this is a coincidence.

Bitcoin peaked on October 27, getting washed out at 116K, stepping straight into a deep pit. From October 27 to November 5, it fell by 15%. Why? Because there was no one to support the bottom, the new buyer group has shrunk, and without bottom strength, who can you expect to pull it up?

This is exactly like the peak in early 2025. At that time, new money was cut off, and it collapsed faster than anyone else. The current situation is starting to replicate. As long as there is a slight wind or bad news, the market can scare itself into a collapse.

Look at the recent signals: massive realized profits on-chain, dumb money signals flashing red, and the liquidity around 98K is waiting to be collected. The market needs to correct; it just hasn’t given you that final push yet.

Back to the market, yesterday Bitcoin rebounded and hit the weekly EMA30 before being smashed down, a typical short-selling setup. U.S. stocks also fell on Tuesday, with a whole day and night of declines.

The switch between bulls and bears is as fast as a gust of wind; a market driven by news has less endurance than a paper wall. During the day, it catches its breath, and at night, it tests 100K again. Tonight, Federal Reserve officials will also speak, and the market will definitely shake a few more times.

Currently, if Bitcoin breaks 102.4K, it will directly test 100.3K, and if Ethereum breaks 3400, it will look at 3336 for support. In short, all rebounds now are just spasms; I don’t believe there will be any major reversals in the short term.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 104800

First Resistance Level: 103800

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 102400

Second Support Level: 101400

The long-term moving averages of 120 and 200MA on the hourly level have completely turned into strong resistance; don’t fantasize about a good market until they break. The lower edge of the previous trading dense area at 102.4K is a key support; if it doesn’t hold, it will be troublesome.

At this stage, 102.4K can be temporarily viewed as a short-term bottom, but once it is lost, it will form an N-shaped decline, with the lower target directly looking at 101.4K, and the upper resistance at 103.8K to 104K is strong. The RSI is around 40; after a brief dip, if it falls to the 20 to 30 range, a rebound may occur.

The first support at 102.4K is the upper edge of the box from November 7 to 8, and the second support at 101.4K is the lower edge of the box from November 9. The first support is currently the most critical area; the short-term bottom is here, and whether it can stabilize depends on tonight's close.

If 102.4K is smashed again, then the N-shaped decline will be established, and Bitcoin will directly head towards 101.4K. By that time, there will be rebound opportunities, but that will be a technical rebound on the edge of a knife, and if not handled well, you will still get trapped.

The first resistance at 103.8K is the low from November 4 and the high from November 8, while the second resistance at 104.8K is the lower edge of the trading dense area from November 10 to 11.

Only by breaking the first resistance can the market have a chance to pull up again. Before that, we need to see if it can stand back above the hourly 120 and 200MA. If it doesn’t, all rebounds are just bait.

11.12 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the range of 104800-105500, Target: 103800-102400

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making rash conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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