Key Points:
The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown issue may trigger a short squeeze, but traders remain cautious about whether this single factor can sustain BTC's breakthrough above $112,000.
As artificial intelligence valuations are adjusted downward and consumer earnings weaken, market risk appetite is diminishing, leading to increased investor caution and limiting confidence in BTC's upward potential.
BTC broke through the $106,000 mark again on Monday, primarily benefiting from positive news that the U.S. government shutdown seems to be nearing an end. Analysts previously warned that if the funding halt extends, it would further undermine consumer confidence, especially with thousands of flights already canceled. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rising by 1.5%, the cryptocurrency market also saw a synchronized increase.
Market experts point out that it is currently necessary to assess whether BTC's latest upward trend can remain stable against the backdrop of weak demand for bullish positions in its derivatives market.
The two-month BTC futures are currently trading at a premium of only 4% over the spot market, below the 5% threshold typically viewed as neutral by the market. There is a clear lack of enthusiasm for leveraged long positions, which may reflect investors' concerns over the $270 million forced liquidations that occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday, stemming from BTC's failure to hold the $107,000 support level. Industry insiders believe buyers may need further confirmation that the economy is indeed entering a recession before actively re-entering the market.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has been forced to significantly reduce domestic flight operations, leading airlines to cancel over 5,000 flights, according to Yahoo Finance. Some air traffic controllers, who have not been paid for nearly a month, have stopped working. Despite the U.S. Senate holding an unusual special session on Sunday, there is still no assurance that the political deadlock will be resolved quickly. Market analysts note that if there is a substantial breakthrough regarding the government shutdown, it would significantly boost the confidence of Bitcoin traders.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court has begun to question President Trump's legal authority to set certain import tariffs. The dual uncertainty surrounding the current duration of the government shutdown and the sustainability of additional import tariffs adds new risk variables to the market.
Although the short-term economic impact remains unclear, the overall effect has so far supported the fiscal budget through delayed spending and additional revenue generation. However, BTC is not entirely insulated from the general concerns about the weakness of the U.S. economy.
On Monday, the BTC options skew indicator (put-call) fell to 6%, marking the first time in November that it has approached the neutral to bearish market edge. Analysts note that this indicator typically rises to 10% or higher when traders expect a significant correction, as put (sell) option trading premiums become pronounced. It is currently unclear what factors could restore traders' confidence in a potential rise to $120,000, but the current market landscape clearly conveys a sense of skepticism.
Unlike monthly BTC futures, perpetual contracts are usually closer to BTC's spot price due to their adjustable funding rates. These contracts are the preferred tool for retail traders, making it particularly important to assess whether market sentiment has improved after BTC's recent retest of the $106,000 level.
Under balanced conditions, funding rates should remain in the range of 6% to 12% to reflect risk and opportunity costs. The current 5% rate is somewhat concerning, indicating that even after BTC tested the $100,000 support level on Friday, retail traders still show a clear lack of participation enthusiasm. However, this absence of demand for leveraged long positions should not be misinterpreted as a definitive bearish stance.
Concerns over inflated valuations in the artificial intelligence sector and weak earnings from consumer-oriented companies have led to an increase in investor risk aversion. The eventual end of the government shutdown could alleviate market tensions and push Bitcoin above $112,000, potentially triggering a short squeeze. However, market experts believe that betting on a bullish breakout solely based on the resolution of the government shutdown seems overly optimistic.
Related: Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) "double bottom pattern" targets $110,000, but CME gap may delay rebound
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice, nor should it be considered as such.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) price could shock traders if it breaks above $112,000”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
