The League of Legends S15 World Championship has come to a close, and Faker has once again stood on the highest podium, claiming his 6th championship and continuing to write his legend. In the cryptocurrency world, with the rise of prediction markets, players are enjoying esports events while participating through these markets.

Among the many cryptocurrency players involved in prediction markets, an ID called "fengdubiying" has become a new legend. In the finals prediction of T1 versus KT, he placed a hefty bet of about $1.58 million on T1 to win, ultimately reaping a profit of about $820,000.

Starting with a position of $30,000 from the Swiss round of S15, by the end of the finals, his total profit on Polymarket had exceeded $2.9 million. This incredible performance has drawn attention from outsiders.

How did he achieve this? What prompted him to become active on Polymarket? In his view, what issues currently exist in Polymarket and the entire prediction market space, and how should the future be envisioned? "fengdubiying" accepted an interview with Rhythm BlockBeats, sharing his legendary journey and insights.

Betting on One's Own Understanding

"I bet on things I feel confident about; this has been my strategy since I entered the cryptocurrency space."

Believing in his own understanding and betting large positions on what he considers high-certainty events is his successful strategy. During last year's Solana meme market, he achieved a single coin A8 on moodeng.

This strategy sounds simple but requires a strong heart and confidence. Behind every glorious victory, there are naturally moments of disappointment. As he wrote on X, his peak profit on Hyperliquid reached $9 million, avoiding the major drop on October 11 and earning $2.8 million through short positions. However, the subsequent liquidity collapse led to continuous losses in his later trades, erasing his profits.

But, as the saying goes, "A blessing in disguise." His losses in the contract market allowed him to profit from betting on Bitcoin to drop below $105,000 on Polymarket. Although it wasn't much, just flipping from $13,000 to $30,000, it marked the beginning of his legendary journey on Polymarket.

Previously, he had learned about Polymarket and prediction markets when Trump was elected president, but due to a lack of interest in political predictions and feeling uncertain, he chose not to participate. To explore new avenues and for potential airdrops, he initially opted for cryptocurrency-related predictions.

Then, the opportunity arose—The League of Legends S15 World Championship.

Decisive and Confident, the King of League of Legends on Polymarket

Faker is undoubtedly the king of League of Legends. On Polymarket, fengdubiying crowned himself with his strong mindset.

In this legendary journey, only player Chovy posed a threat to him. In the semifinals between KT and Gen.G, he bet over $400,000 on Gen.G, but Chovy's performance in the match left him speechless. When Gen.G fell behind 1:2, he reluctantly and decisively cleared his position betting on Gen.G to win and switched to betting on KT.

This maneuver resulted in a loss of only $20,000 on that bet.

When we asked about his gaming rank, he humorously replied:

"Actually, I haven't played in a long time. I reached Diamond back in school, but as I've gotten older, I can't keep up. Just because you understand the game doesn't mean you can play it well."

Although he no longer charges into the Summoner's Rift with a mouse like in his student days, he never misses the annual S tournament and always makes his predictions about the match results, maintaining a good win rate.

When asked if he would engage in low-buy high-sell arbitrage based on player sentiment fluctuations during matches, he stated he would not:

"Once the knockout stage begins, the strength gap between teams is small, and situations can change rapidly. If a team is in poor form and already behind, they can easily be swept away in one wave, leaving no room for arbitrage. Betting on Polymarket is similar to opening positions in contracts; nothing is guaranteed, and you can only stand on the side with higher probabilities."

Differences Between Prediction Markets and Traditional Entertainment

In fengdubiying's view, there is a fundamental difference between prediction markets and traditional entertainment:

"The differences are significant. It's like baccarat versus Texas hold 'em; baccarat is a battle against the dealer, while Texas hold 'em is a battle between players. In prediction markets, each prediction is a battle between players, relying on one's own understanding and strategy. If you're playing against the dealer, you're destined to lose."

He believes that prediction markets are a variant of trading markets, with limited price and market orders, charging some fees like contract markets.

Regarding the range of topics in prediction markets, he also sees a significant difference from traditional gambling. The range of topics in prediction markets is broad, including traditional sports events like football, basketball, and esports, as well as many political and weather predictions.

Moreover, prediction markets are built on contract code, offering unique security and convenience on-chain. Although prediction markets and traditional entertainment both seem to involve "betting on something," he believes prediction markets represent a completely new track that cannot be compared to the latter.

Current Issues in Prediction Markets

In terms of liquidity, fengdubiying believes there is much room for improvement in current prediction markets.

"This year, I transitioned to the Bitcoin contract market because other markets couldn't accommodate the depth of my positions. If a market lacks sufficient liquidity, I end up just giving money to others. Once players reach a certain capital size, they will clearly feel the limitations of liquidity in various markets and can only go to places that can accommodate their capital."

In his view, the current situation on Polymarket resembles the early days of the meme market, where liquidity was low. Aside from world-class sports events and global political and economic topics, many other topics have very low liquidity, which limits the options for whales, as entering and exiting with thousands or tens of thousands of dollars is boring for them.

He personally experienced the challenges of insufficient depth during his betting process in the S tournament:

"If I want to place a high position bet, it's quite difficult to high-sell and low-buy, or to take profits and stop losses. A position of $200,000 to $300,000 is manageable, but if it rises to $800,000 or even a million, it's tough. When T1 was down 1:2, I checked the order book, and if I wanted to stop loss at that moment, there were only orders of over $100,000 in the book. Even if I sold everything to stop loss, I could only get back that much money."

He believes there are many whales much larger than him, and if they want to attract these whales to play in prediction markets, better liquidity is essential. If prediction markets could introduce market makers like contract markets to deepen the order book, it would be more attractive to whales.

Additionally, he thinks that the user experience across various prediction markets needs improvement.

Outlook for Prediction Markets

Before discussing the future of prediction markets, we posed a question to fengdubiying: In the past, when hot events occurred, many meme hot coins would emerge, such as during the U.S. elections surrounding candidates and various sudden events. As prediction markets develop, will they compete with meme hot coins?

His answer was decisive: no.

"I believe the meme track is over. The cryptocurrency space has been repeating similar things; essentially, it's the same, just with different concepts. For retail players, their expectations come from encountering a so-called new thing and immediately feeling that there was no such gameplay before, but this takes time. For example, during the inscription period, UniSat slowly built up, and by the time the second wave truly took off, the infrastructure was already mostly complete. From this perspective, meme coins have become completely unoriginal after pump.fun; everything that needed to be built has been built, and no one is left to take over. From whales to small players, everyone will eventually withdraw due to lack of profit. Therefore, there is no competitive relationship between a declining track and an ascending one."

Major events in the real world are happening all the time. In his view, although sports and political topics are currently popular on Polymarket, more topics will surely become popular in the future.

"Everyone has their own area of expertise. For example, I don't understand politics or football, but I understand League of Legends. So, everyone can try to monetize their accumulated understanding in a specific field, which is a very attractive aspect of prediction markets for outsiders, and I think it's very cool. Moreover, in real life, people enjoy discussing various topics, leading to jokes like 'understanding brother.' The desire to prove oneself right makes prediction markets more appealing to outsiders than cryptocurrencies themselves."

He believes the prospects for prediction markets are limitless, and surpassing the peak user and capital numbers of meme coins in the future is not an issue. As more people enter prediction markets, new leaders will emerge, and different individuals will grow in their respective areas of expertise. Of course, there will also be more "scientists" who engage in sentiment arbitrage based on news or explore more gameplay strategies.

"I think every stage has its own opportunities. Over the past year, the meme market was better, but now it has ended. What we need to do is not to dwell on past glories, letting the past be the past. Whether for small players or whales, insiders or outsiders, everyone will have their own opportunities in prediction markets. Look forward to a new future."

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