Key Points:
The BTC double bottom pattern may enhance bullish momentum, pushing the price towards the $110,000 target.
The CME gap near $104,000 could trigger a short-term pullback.
The accumulation of stablecoins and pressure signals from short-term holders indicate increased market volatility in the near term.
BTC demonstrated a textbook double bottom pattern over the weekend, which helped it achieve a bullish weekly close above the 50-week moving average. This pattern aligns well with the order block on the daily chart between $98,100 and $102,000, where BTC rebounded strongly after multiple tests of the key $100,000 level.
After a bullish structural breakout on the four-hour chart, BTC now faces resistance around $111,300, which may be tested if short-term momentum continues. However, on-chain data analysis suggests that this upward process may not be smooth.
Glassnode analysts noted that BTC successfully rebounded from a cost basis position near the 75th percentile around $100,000. The next key obstacle is near the 85th percentile cost basis, around $108,500, a level that often acts as strong resistance during historical market recoveries. The percentile cost basis indicator measures the price at which most investors acquired BTC, effectively mapping the cost distribution in the market.
However, Cointelegraph points out that there may be potential liquidity capture above $115,000, which aligns closely with daily resistance levels, while bullish liquidity around $100,000 has been completely exhausted.
Additionally, the CME gap from $103,100 to $104,000 remains a key short-term risk factor. The CME gap forms when there is a discrepancy between BTC's price movements over the weekend and the closing and opening prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and these gaps typically get "filled" as traders retest these levels, suggesting BTC may experience a brief pullback before resuming its upward trend.
As market liquidity and participation gradually weaken, BTC prices may retreat to the $101,000-$102,500 range, retesting the one-hour and four-hour order blocks formed over the weekend before a decisive upward breakout.
CryptoQuant data shows that the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has plummeted from above 18 earlier this year to 13.1, marking one of the lowest levels since 2025. This significant decline indicates that stablecoin reserves are increasing relative to BTC's market cap, which is a clear sign that off-chain liquidity accumulation is waiting for market signals.
Over the past month, as BTC prices hovered around $105,000, the SSR fell from 15 to 13, suggesting that investors are cautiously waiting for market confirmation signals before deploying funds.
On the other hand, cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost noted that since September, inflows of short-term holders (STH) into Binance surged by 40%, increasing from 5,000 BTC to 8,700 BTC. With the realization price for short-term holders around $112,000, many investors are currently in a loss position and are more sensitive to short-term market fluctuations. The selling pressure from this group often triggers market turbulence in the mid-cycle before a broader bull market continues, adding a layer of instability to the short-term market.
Related: As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end, Bitcoin (BTC) prices are poised to hunt for liquidity at the $112,000 level.
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) ‘Double Bottom Pattern’ Aiming for $110,000, but CME Gap May Delay Rally”
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