The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke screens!

Bitcoin today reached a new high of 106,666. The precision of digital control is indeed remarkable, and it feels quite different. Since the rebound from the new low, it has approached a distance of nearly ten thousand points. Currently, the market is still speculating on the interest rate cut issue in December, but it is not a discussion of 50 basis points or 25 basis points. The latest discussion surprisingly suggests a 25 basis point cut in December, with another 25 basis point cut likely in January next year. The Federal Reserve seems to be intentionally suppressing the market, and the probability of an interest rate cut is significantly decreasing, reaching 67.3%. Basically, since Lao Cui provided a conclusion on the interest rate cut issue at the beginning of the year, there has been no further discussion, but this time is different. Today's rise is largely attributed to betting on the resolution of the recent U.S. government shutdown issue, which is likely to be restored. This is also the reason Lao Cui mentioned yesterday that there might be a big market today. Everyone should not overlook this factor; the U.S. is indeed quite unstable at this stage.

The short-term decline can be attributed to the U.S. shutdown as one of the main reasons. Lao Cui has always been concerned about the issue of SOL's passage, and everyone can find the main reasons to review. Yesterday, I merely proposed some ideas for review, and as a result, some friends with relatively little experience came to Lao Cui, and I found that everyone seems not very good at reviewing. Reviewing is a skill that must be learned in the financial market and is the factor that most distinguishes experts from novices. Most friends who come to Lao Cui for evaluation of their trades often express regret over a misjudgment of a loss. Coin friends must learn to distinguish between regret and review; the person you should seek for regret should be Jesus, not Lao Cui. What is reviewing? After a trade is completed, if it results in a loss, one should look for the factors that caused the loss. For example, if a long position results in a loss, what needs to be found is why there was a desire to go long at that time, and what the supporting reasons were.

Or perhaps the direction was correct, but the position was too heavy, causing personal losses. The greatest benefit of reviewing is to ensure that the factors leading to failure in the previous round are not carried over into the next round, including emotions. Especially for contract users, emotional control is also crucial; most friends' losses are emotional issues. There is no need for everyone to maintain extreme rationality; this goes against human nature. The extreme of rationality is abandonment, while the extreme of emotion is hope. Extreme rationality can be achieved using AI; there are currently quantitative systems available. If you want to become an emotionless machine, you can use quantification. However, the investment market does not succeed solely through complete rationality; every investment, whether heavy or light, requires a certain amount of courage. Analyzing the market is the same; the market makers are also human and need to make profits to speculate. The U.S. shutdown is merely for fiscal appropriations, not for the long term. As long as normalcy can be restored this month, the market will recover.

This kind of shutdown is at the grassroots level, but from the data released, it is evident that the grassroots shutdown has caused them trouble. Data has been pushed back repeatedly, and the authenticity of the data is also debatable. This kind of instability could lead to misjudgments in December. The strongest support is nothing more than the non-farm payroll data, especially after the falsification during Biden's term, which has significantly increased the probability of an interest rate cut. Based on this factor, there may be a continuation of interest rate cuts in January after the December cut. At the same time, there are theories that do not support interest rate cuts; Trump's statements are somewhat unconventional, often mentioning giving rice to all citizens. If this were to happen, it would lead to inflation. The Federal Reserve's main responsibility is to suppress inflation, and the recent inflation issue in the U.S. has not been effectively resolved. Do not think that Trump's rice distribution is just a joke; during the mask period, he indeed distributed money, and the crazy money printing has not fully digested inflation to this day, which is also the main reason for the balance sheet reduction.

Trump is indeed the biggest unstable factor, and coupled with the incompleteness of the data after this shutdown, the Federal Reserve's decision is extremely important. Judging by the current clues, the probability of an interest rate cut is very high, especially since it has been announced that the balance sheet reduction will end in December, which indicates that most Federal Reserve personnel believe the inflation issue has been resolved. Therefore, the end of the balance sheet reduction and the interest rate cut will likely occur simultaneously. These two factors will also determine the height of the cryptocurrency market this year—whether it will grow at the end of the year or at the beginning of the year. This question also requires time to verify. In the short term, most coin friends like to use metaphysical theories to discuss with Lao Cui, such as how every Double Eleven leads to a big drop. Lao Cui is unsure how to refute such statements. Currently, if we say that such a sharp drop on the timeline is from an economic perspective, it is unlikely that coin friends in the cryptocurrency market would convert their USDT into fiat currency for shopping, right? This kind of argument does not hold water in economics.

At this stage in the cryptocurrency market, giants do not exist domestically, and domestic retail investors are relatively few compared to Japan, South Korea, and Europe and the U.S. There is no need to discuss the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market based on shopping holidays. If holidays could cause the cryptocurrency market to collapse, what everyone should pay attention to is Black Friday on November 29, when Americans will indeed spend, as well as Christmas. Around these two holidays, there will indeed be capital outflows, and they do take these two holidays seriously. Regarding news in the cryptocurrency market, everyone should focus mainly on Europe and the U.S.; the funds currently entering the Asian market cannot shake the market. Starting today, U.S. public pension funds will officially begin investing in Bitcoin, which means that there will be a large influx of funds into the Bitcoin market in the future. Everyone should not misidentify the coin type; this investment will drive Bitcoin's upward movement, with little impact on other coins. Additionally, Ethereum is also in the planning stage. As long as the coins listed afterward have the opportunity to be selected by U.S. pension funds, pay more attention to SOL, as it may be the last opportunity to get in.

Lao Cui summarizes: Yesterday's article was not successfully sent on one platform. When I woke up today and checked, I found that the wrong article was sent, and I apologize for that. If you see this, you can remind Lao Cui; it’s not that I didn’t write yesterday. Returning to the issues of concern for contract users, Lao Cui only explains Bitcoin and Ethereum, hoping that everyone will also trade these two coins; SOL can only be entered in spot form. This rebound has come quite fiercely and has substantial financial support. Yesterday, the friend circle also mentioned looking for rebound signals. The only coin that can be confirmed currently is BNB, so if you want to trade, you can still take BNB as a target. As long as BNB rises, Bitcoin will likely follow. Yesterday was the same; the activation times of these two were less than five minutes apart, with slightly different increases. The latest prediction suggests that the U.S. shutdown may lead to negative GDP in the fourth quarter, which is extremely favorable news for an interest rate cut. If you have not yet entered the spot market, now is the time to take measures to convince yourself. Lao Cui has always advocated buying, buying, buying for the spot market. Only for contract users is it best to maintain communication with Lao Cui when entering the market. Currently, both long and short positions can still be profitable, but shorting must find a stable downward trend after a new high. The further away from the 100,000 mark, the safer it is, and there will also be a recovery trend. Do not rush. As mentioned yesterday, are you satisfied with today's big market?

Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; experts can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while those with lower skills can only see two or three moves. Experts consider the overall situation and strategize, not focusing on one piece or one territory, aiming for the ultimate victory. In contrast, the less skilled fight for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。