Bitcoin’s sharp retreat this week underscored a shift in risk sentiment as the world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped to test the $100,000 support level before bouncing back to around $103,000. The drop coincided with a firmer U.S. dollar and renewed doubts over Federal Reserve policy, both of which curbed appetite for risk assets across markets.

Adding fuel to the move, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw roughly $1.3 billion in cumulative outflows over four consecutive sessions, marking a reversal from one of 2025’s strongest bullish drivers. This wave of withdrawals came alongside over $1 billion in long liquidations, amplifying downside pressure before dip buyers stepped in near the lows.

QCP’s Nov. 5 report showed that options flows also magnified volatility. With dealers net short gamma around $100K strikes, hedging activity accelerated as bitcoin approached the key psychological level. Market watchers now see $100,000 as the critical line in the sand, with ETF inflows likely to dictate whether BTC can mount a sustainable recovery.

Despite the turbulence, the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. The U.S. economy continues to expand at a steady pace, even as the government shutdown delays key data releases. The Fed’s cautious stance after October’s 25bp rate cut has kept the dollar firm and credit conditions tight, but the underlying growth picture remains intact.

For bitcoin, the next catalyst hinges on a reversal in ETF outflows and a broader risk rebound. Until then, the market’s focus remains fixed on whether $100K can hold as the new floor for the cycle.

FAQ🔍

• Why did bitcoin drop toward $100,000 this week?
  ETF outflows and renewed Fed policy uncertainty triggered a sharp selloff across risk assets.
• How much did ETFs contribute to the decline?
  U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.3 billion in outflows over four days, adding to selling pressure.
• What’s keeping the macro backdrop supportive?
  The U.S. economy remains resilient, with steady growth despite tight credit and a strong dollar.
• What could spark bitcoin’s next recovery?
  A rebound in ETF inflows and clearer Fed policy guidance could restore risk appetite and momentum.

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