Short-term sentiment is influenced by Powell's hint that there will be no interest rate cuts in December, combined with the volatility of U.S. stock earnings reports, putting pressure on risk assets. However, after-hours performance from several tech companies was good, showing signs of recovery before today's market open. Currently, $BTC remains strongly correlated with tech stocks, and no decoupling risk has been observed. The biggest issue in the crypto market continues to be the lack of an independent narrative; the slowdown in ETF inflows and the silence on Trump's strategic reserve topic have reduced traditional capital participation, with incremental investments only occurring during favorable tech or macro conditions.

Although on-chain and funding sentiment is suppressed by macro factors, the Fed's halt in balance sheet reduction indicates a policy turning point has emerged. Even if there are no interest rate cuts in December, the trend remains unchanged, and with expectations for the Trump cycle in 2026, the long-term liquidity environment is still positive. I continue to hold long positions, having taken profits and replenished a few times during this period. If extreme volatility leads to increased risk, I will enter the spot market. From the perspective of chips and trading behavior, there are no signs of panic; the support remains, which feels more like a short-term sentiment adjustment rather than a trend disruption.

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