Bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult for ordinary investors to buy, raising the question: can the current bull market continue beyond the traditional four-year cycle?
Cryptocurrency market intelligence firm 10x Research points out that Bitcoin has become too expensive, which is detrimental to sustained retail buying, a trend that could jeopardize expectations for the current bull market cycle to extend.
According to 10x, despite many calls for an extended market cycle, drawing conclusions solely based on the previous four market cycles is "highly controversial."
The company stated in a report on Tuesday: "Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns," and added:
The company noted: "While many see this as a natural sign of maturity, it also raises deeper questions about the validity of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory."
10x Research further stated that considering Bitcoin's only 16-year history, drawing "solid statistical conclusions" from such a short time frame is "highly controversial."
Despite several popular predictive models, including the widely cited S2F model, predicting that Bitcoin would soar to $1 million, 10x Research's methodology forecasts that the peak for this cycle will only be $125,000 by the end of this year.
The research firm accurately predicted the bear market bottom that occurred in October 2022 using a similar approach.
Compared to the more aggressive expectations of other industry insiders, 10x's price target is relatively conservative.
Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, told Cointelegraph that due to a record $19 billion liquidation event potentially becoming a new buying opportunity for investors, he expects Bitcoin's price to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kendrick made this point during an interview at the 2025 European Blockchain Conference in Barcelona.
Cointelegraph reported that in a February interview, Kendrick also predicted that by the time Trump completes his second term (2028), Bitcoin could soar to $500,000.
The most successful group of traders in the industry, tracked as "smart money" traders on the Nansen blockchain analytics platform, is also continuously increasing their exposure to Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, data shows that on Tuesday, the 11th most held asset by "smart money" traders was the Binance-issued pegged Bitcoin token (BTCB), following some more speculative meme coins like Pump.fun (PUMP) and Pepe (PEPE) meme coins.
Related: As the probability of a Fed rate cut surpasses 98%, Bitcoin (BTC) price begins to break through the $112,000 mark.
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) ‘too expensive for retail,’ may end bull market cycle”
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