Bitcoin (BTC) welcomed an anticipated rebound in the last week of October; can the BTC price trend recover the losses incurred from the historical high point correction?
Bitcoin reached $114,500 at the weekly close, with bulls achieving a long-awaited rebound, but many traders remain unconvinced.
The FOMC meeting week has begun, showing clear signs of easing in the U.S. stock market due to reduced expectations for U.S.-China tariffs.
Research indicates that continued interest rate cuts could automatically drive up BTC prices, with AI predictions suggesting a return to $125,000.
“Uptober” in 2025 may help Bitcoin avoid the infamous title of “worst October ever.”
Short-term holders have regained profits, with room for growth before reaching classic retracement levels.
Bitcoin brought hope to bulls before the weekly close.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD successfully rebounded to $114,500 and regained the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
Over the weekend, trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that this trendline is a key level to maintain moving forward.
BTC Bitcoin is positioned for a positive Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA (green) The recent breakout from the Ascending Triangle on the Daily timeframe has enabled this positive position on the Weekly timeframe $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/T7WJgk9Uyw pic.twitter.com/4u42pdGTX9
“Bitcoin is making a strong rebound from the macro range low,” he wrote in a post on X on Sunday.
Despite the impressive performance, Bitcoin still struggles to convince many market participants that a bull market has returned.
Among them, trader Roman reiterated concerns about high cycle weakness, low trading volume, and bearish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI).
He indicated on Monday via a weekly candlestick chart that attention should be paid to this potential HTF head and shoulders bearish reversal pattern, which would be confirmed if it breaks below the $109,000 neckline.
Trading account HTL-NL believes that BTC/USD is in a triangular expansion structure, and the overall situation has not changed due to the rise.
GM $BTC. Still not much to add. Soon we will see how strong this move is, or if we need another down. https://t.co/AOCt5Naqyb pic.twitter.com/nXancsSDzY
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass indicates that as volatility returns, prices have crossed liquidation levels both above and below.
This week’s macroeconomic focus is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with major markets betting on an optimistic outcome.
Due to the government shutdown leading to missing inflation data, the Fed has less reference data than usual this time.
Even so, the market generally believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will opt for a 0.25% rate cut; the CME Group FedWatch tool shows a probability exceeding 95%.
The only data released—the consumer price index (CPI) from last week—further reinforced the bull market logic for risk assets due to lower-than-expected inflation.
“This week is packed with significant events,” summarized trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
Kobeissi noted that major corporate earnings reports will intensify market volatility in the coming days, including upcoming reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and others.
Another important topic is the U.S.-China trade agreement. Earlier this month, tariff threats caused a plunge in cryptocurrencies and stocks, while Washington announced over the weekend that an agreement is close to being reached.
U.S. President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this Thursday.
At the beginning of the week, stock futures surged on this news, removing a major obstacle to the continuation of the bull market.
“Since the low on October 10, the S&P 500 has increased by $3 trillion, following President Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China,” Kobeissi added.
Driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin's future trend is also attracting attention from AI models. Network economist Timothy Peterson brought more “hope” to Bitcoin bulls this week.
He believes that Bitcoin's price cycle is directly influenced by interest rate policies; a rate-cutting cycle will naturally support the bull market logic.
He predicts that central bank liquidity injections—quantitative easing (QE)—are imminent, stating, “Interest rates are still too high, but quantitative easing (QE) is coming soon.”
Peterson, known for his research on Bitcoin price growth and Metcalfe's Law, connects Bitcoin network expansion with long-term price bottoms. He stated, “Bitcoin's valuation is determined by the number of addresses and Metcalfe's Law.”
Peterson released the latest results of AI simulations predicting recent BTC price trends. $115,000 has been set as a new focal point, while $125,000 becomes a target worth watching before the end of October.
Due to recent downward trends, model readings have decreased. Previously, BTC/USD briefly touched a low of $102,000 on Binance.
With price volatility still high, Bitcoin's “Uptober” in 2025 remains uncertain.
At $115,000, BTC/USD is approximately 1% higher than the opening level in October, helping to avoid a “red” month at the most unexpected moment.
As price volatility remains intense, Bitcoin's fate in “Uptober” 2025 hangs in the balance.
The current level of $115,000 puts BTC/USD about 1% higher than the October opening price, helping to prevent an unexpected “red” month.
Uptober was… interesting. But we still have Growvember!!!
Trader Daan Crypto Trades predicted an “interesting” monthly close, with sentiment in September and October contradicting price trends.
“Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has opened and closed within a small 8% price range over the past four months,” he told his followers on X.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicates that the current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is in the ‘neutral’ zone.
The monthly chart shows that a new record is brewing. Below the $115,750 level, BTC/USD will set a record for the highest monthly close.
Among all Bitcoin holders, recent buyers in this cycle are undoubtedly the most pleased.
Short-term holders (STHs)—those who bought in the last six months—have now regained their overall cost basis, around $113,000.
On-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant noted that the short-term holder profit ratio (SOPR) has risen back above 1, reaching a new high since October 8.
CryptoQuant's research shows that recently, the profit of the total supply often peaks before local corrections at 95%.
“These corrections typically find a bottom near the 75% threshold. More precisely, we saw 73% in September 2024: 73%, 76% in April 2024, and recently 81%,” contributor Darkfost wrote in his Quicktake blog post on Sunday.
Related: Tether stablecoin business expected to hit new profit highs
Original article: “BTC Price Eyes Record Monthly Close: 5 Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week”
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