Polymarket wagerers are calling it: the U.S. government shutdown may drag on until late November. As of Oct. 26, the decentralized prediction platform’s market titled “When will the Government shutdown end?” has attracted nearly $2.92 million in total volume, with Nov. 16 or later holding a commanding 49% probability.
The next most likely window, according to live market odds, is Nov. 4–7 at 18%, while Nov. 12–15 sits at 14%. The short-term bets—those predicting an end before Halloween—have largely fallen flat.
Polymarket wager on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025.
The Oct. 27–30 window carries just a 4% chance, while Oct. 31–Nov. 3 hovers around 10%. In other words, the crowd consensus says don’t expect this impasse to wrap up before mid-November.
Polymarket’s live price chart shows the “Nov. 16+” contract steadily climbing through October, nearly doubling from 25% at the start of the month to about 49% today. Each “Yes” share in that bracket trades for roughly 48.7¢, suggesting traders see roughly even odds of the shutdown extending well into late November or beyond.
If the prediction proves right, the shutdown would cross into the longest in modern history. With government services strained and negotiations stalled, bettors seem to be pricing in continued political friction.
Adding to the week’s intensity, The Kobeissi Letter posted on X, “This week is going to be action packed,” noting that the shutdown’s 30th day will collide with several market-moving events. The X post highlighted the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks amid a “data blackout.”
On top of that, tech giants Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, and Amazon—representing $15.2 trillion in combined market cap—are all set to report earnings. “Buckle up for a wild week,” The Kobeissi Letter concluded, referencing President Trump’s scheduled meeting with China’s President Xi just two days before his proposed 100% tariff on Chinese imports takes effect.
With traders weighing everything from Fed signals to tariff risks, Polymarket’s odds may serve as a crowd-sourced sentiment gauge—not just on Washington’s gridlock, but on the broader pulse of U.S. political and economic uncertainty.
- What does Polymarket predict for the government shutdown’s end?
Polymarket traders currently predict the shutdown will end around Nov. 21, with the “Nov. 16+” bracket leading at 49%. - How much has been wagered on the Polymarket shutdown bet?
Total trading volume has surpassed $2.9 million as of Oct. 26, 2025. - Which date ranges are traders betting on next?
The Nov. 4–7 and Nov. 12–15 ranges follow with 18% and 14% odds, respectively. - Why is this week significant for markets and politics?
The Kobeissi Letter noted that the shutdown coincides with Fed decisions, big tech earnings, and Trump’s meeting with Xi—making it a pivotal week for traders and policymakers alike.
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