The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and reject any market smoke screens!
As we approach early November, it’s time for the old topic again: paying attention to foreign exchange settlements and exchange rate fluctuations. In almost all markets related to foreign trade settlements, there is usually a wave of growth towards the end of the year. Especially for assets related to the US dollar, the weak dollar and the appreciation of dollar assets will show vigorous growth by the end of the year. The domestic GDP is similar; there will be a significant increase in the fourth quarter. If we look at the trend, this year is still in a growth state, although the fluctuations are not as significant as last year; the trend this year was already indicated at the beginning of the year, and everyone can look back to explore this trend. The conclusion given at the beginning of the year was that the first half would see a decline, with a new low appearing before June, and no new highs would emerge. Just around early April, Bitcoin formed a new low starting with 70K, and so far, there has been no opportunity to turn back.
Therefore, the thought for the second half of the year is one of growth; many friends expressed fear over yesterday's article, thinking that the second wave of spikes in November would affect the subsequent trend. The current spike in November seems to be an estimate of the capital volume. It is highly likely that this situation will occur, but do not think it will be the same as the trend in the first half of the year. The article at the end of the first half also indicated that the Bitcoin starting with 70K was already the lowest point of the year. However, at that time, many overlooked this viewpoint, leading to many friends not entering the market. Lao Cui was the same; the focus in the first half of the year was mainly on Ethereum, and fortunately, the returns were indeed higher than Bitcoin, which cannot be considered a failure of the expected estimate. Regarding the bottoming out in November, there is no need for such fear; this layout for Lao Cui indeed makes this year a year of harvest. If you did not enter the market in the first half of the year, or if you are currently in a cash position, the current price level is suitable for you to hold long-term until the end of the year, and this phase will definitely be a growth state.
Especially considering the short-term aspect, this kind of speculative state is not Lao Cui's comfort zone. Although I do engage in some contracts daily, most are to validate my viewpoints. The positions in Lao Cui's contracts are not large, maintaining around 20K. Heavy positions are definitely chosen in spot trading; my personal long positions are still relatively smooth, which everyone in my circle can see. Regarding the estimated low point in November, it is also very difficult for Bitcoin to break below the 100K mark. If your current position can support Bitcoin's decline by 20K, entering the market at this stage will definitely not result in significant differences. The competition is merely one of patience; if the capital volume in your hands cannot support you until the end of the year, then it is not suitable for you to enter the market at this stage. Basically, the entry positions given by Lao Cui are based on the current price, providing expected orders. Many friends are basically unable to enter the market; if you are stuck based on Lao Cui's positions, you can directly communicate with Lao Cui, and I will provide personal suggestions, whether to adopt them depends on your own viewpoint.
Returning to the short-term impact of news, the yield on US Treasury bonds is starting to decline slightly, which aligns with our previous estimates, and this will become the norm in the future. As long as Lao Cui initiates this strategy adjustment, the decline of US Treasury bonds and the dollar will become the main theme in the next 1-2 years. Therefore, those holding such assets can consider converting them into other fixed assets. The mainstream view in the market believes that this measure by the US will lead to a decline in gold, but it is a bit premature to conclude at this stage. Lao Cui's viewpoint is that gold will continue to rise; the domestic de-dollarization will significantly increase gold's market share. The decline in gold this week is purely due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the driver opened a negotiation window, creating the illusion for many that the war would stop. Everyone should not be influenced by this viewpoint; gold also belongs to the payment system, and in the first two rounds of speculation, gold will be recognized as the settlement. In the future, this system may form, while the crypto circle is merely a payment path, and the two belong to different camps.
It can be simply understood that recognizing gold in payments is the norm, while Bitcoin will not become the anchor for transactions between China and the US. The current endorsement in the crypto circle still relies on the US dollar and the US Treasury bond system, which we will not recognize. This can be seen from Hong Kong's attitude, especially as OK has even directly abandoned the Hong Kong market, and the application for licenses has been directly withdrawn; this is what Lao Cui mentioned yesterday, do not look at Hong Kong, as it will not become the future digital currency center. Currently, the exchanges that have obtained licenses are still local exchanges; Hong Kong will only open the inflow of links, not choose to let them out. Singapore has instead become the cryptocurrency center of Asia, which is the future path. The emergence of Hong Kong is merely to facilitate trading links, not for the expansion of trade. At the same time, the increase in the issuance of USDT and USDC can also be seen; USDT mostly relies on the issuance from the BN platform, so the growth of BNB remains strong.
The growth of USDC is even more special, mainly based on the ETH and SOL links, but the market share is too low and has not driven the growth of these two currencies. This is not bad news; such primitive accumulation definitely requires time for validation. For these two currencies, it will serve as a catalyst for the growth of a bull market. As long as the bull market starts, these two currencies only need five bullish candles to create new highs. From the current inflow of funds, only Bitcoin maintains an inflow state, while the inflow situation for Ethereum is not ideal; although SOL has landed on Fidelity's retail platform, it is priced at 195, with the support level below at 188. Gemini has also exited the credit card Solana version, and the inflow of funds is also not ideal. For these currencies that have not yet exploded into a bull market, this is just the original state of capital accumulation. If the next round of bull market representative currency can only be SOL, SOL already has the capital volume and market sentiment to create new highs. Everyone should pay more attention to the SOL currency; below 200 is already considered a low position, and holding it until the end of the year is definitely worth buying.
Lao Cui's summary: This article is somewhat chaotic because I have been busy arranging the entry and exit of spot SOL and contracts these past two days, so the focus has not been on the article. If you have specific questions, please try to send private messages. I will find free time in the evening to reply to everyone, so don’t worry. Since these past two days have also been a weekend state, the market fluctuations are not large, but as long as it does not break down, it is highly likely that after Monday, growth will begin, which is tomorrow. The speculation about interest rate cuts and the issue of balance sheet reduction should result in greater fluctuations than the interest rate cuts in September, depending on whether the US can resolve the shutdown issue in time for SOL to be listed; currently, there are not many platforms for listing. I would also like to mention OKB; users who have already purchased OKB do not need to worry, as there will still be growth. However, compared to the two, users who have not entered the market at this stage should focus on SOL, as BNB is not worth picking up again. Today is the best date for you to enter the market; tomorrow may not provide more entry opportunities. Currently, Lao Cui's contract entry position is also mainly based on ETH, with a price around 3930. The ideal situation is to exit at 3968, but looking at it long-term, there should be no problem above 4000. If you can hold until the interest rate cut period, or even after, a 100-point profit can be confirmed. Be sure to manage your positions well.
Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the final victory, while the novice fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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