The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke screens!
The CPI data has finally been released, with CPI recorded at 3%, lower than the expected 3.10%, and market sentiment is heating up. Although it is below the expected value, it is still favorable for interest rate cuts. This time, the good news does not mean a rate cut in October, but rather increases the probability of a rate cut in December, essentially defining the trend for the future. If we look purely from a technical analysis perspective, almost all values point to a bearish range. Due to the extraordinary linear appearance on October 10, the entire Bollinger Band's opening direction is downward. Although there are signs of a rebound, they are not obvious. As long as we ignore the impact of the October 10 shadow line, the current market trend from a technical perspective is in a stage of high pullback, so the current technical analysis can be directly ignored. The technical analysis at this stage has no reference value. This includes moving averages, which are all in a broken state, unless we look at the 50-day moving average from a long-term perspective, which is purely about observing long-term trends.
With only about 5 days left until the interest rate cut, we are definitely within the range of interest rate cut expectations; all inflow data is extremely favorable, and there probably won't be a deep pullback effect below. This is not only due to JPMorgan's analysis but also includes Deutsche Bank's expectations, all pointing to the end of tapering next week. Therefore, shorting at this stage is definitely not the optimal choice; even not doing anything is much better than shorting. The only good news for bears recently is the tariff issue, which is gradually approaching a breakthrough. Unless trade tensions escalate again, there won't be too much negative trend emerging. Regarding tariffs, Lao Cui cannot intervene, but can only say that everyone should make long-term plans. In the short term, the trend is basically in a fluctuating form, and why this fluctuation occurs is also a matter of the main funds needing to make choices. Let's talk about the dynamics of the main funds.
In this market, the total number of participants tends to remain constant. Most of the time, when the main funds do not intervene, the market generally moves sideways; there are people on both sides with their own reasons to act, creating a contradiction that leads to oscillation. At this time, if a main fund nudges the market, the direction will tilt towards them. However, the main funds often aim to make money; after pushing the market up, they may then drive it down sharply, or even push it up and then pull back to wipe out everyone before going up again. This is the essence. This is also why, when extremely favorable news emerges, the market often behaves oppositely. Perhaps the data shows us favorable news, which is what the market makers want us to see. Regarding interest rate cut expectations, Lao Cui usually does not recommend everyone to act, but this time is different; it is very likely that tapering will end around or on the day of the interest rate cut. Since the reserve requirement rate has already started to be lowered, ending tapering will be a conclusion in the near future.
This is a complete process. If everyone is unclear about the trend, you can take a look at our current response measures. To save the economy, interest rate cuts, lowering the reserve requirement rate, and expanding the balance sheet have all been initiated before the tariff issues. This is also the ultimate trump card to stabilize the domestic economy, which is why Goldman Sachs has repeatedly lowered its predictions for the domestic housing market, because ultimately there will be a day when interest rate cuts end, tapering ends, and the reserve requirement rate rises. If all these favorable news end, we may face even lower positions. As for the United States, they have already completed lowering the reserve requirement rate, and the interest rate cut cycle has long begun, with only the option of expanding the balance sheet remaining. The end of tapering and the expansion of the balance sheet will not take too long; ending tapering means that the Federal Reserve believes the previous bubbles have been completely digested and can create new bubbles. The cycle will generally not exceed three months, and the start of expanding the balance sheet will mark the arrival of a bull market; ending tapering is merely to maximize the benefits of interest rate cuts.
As long as the combination of these two can arrive, it is the preheating before the bull market, and this can be directly confirmed. The only point that generates fear for this bull market is the issue of the real economy. This is the first time in human history that securities data is good but real economy data is a mess. Do not compare Japanese history with Korean history; the current global finance is not on the same level. Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there were only interest rate cuts without the option of expanding the balance sheet. This time, the stimulus has almost exhausted all means. The reason for the favorable data can be intuitively felt; leading technology companies have not seen changes in their earnings. This financial crisis only affects the earnings of the middle and lower classes, while high-tech companies still have ample cash on hand. This is why the trend of dollar devaluation has begun; this is a precursor to weak cash, simply wanting them to start circulating cash. This will also come, as they have no other options.
Therefore, for the bull market, one basic point can be set: the appreciation of dollar assets. It is not only safe-haven assets that appreciate; assets linked to the dollar appreciate, as shown by the performance of the US stock market. However, all strategies will only affect the dynamics of other markets after they have been fully utilized. The cryptocurrency market is linked to dollar assets and is also on an upward trajectory, not a sunset industry. At this stage, whether it is 300 billion or 400 billion, the overall market value of the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its historical peak, and the expected value will definitely continue to rise. Including the short-term bearish outlook, it is only a judgment based on the flow of funds. Lao Cui's estimate for November does indeed lean towards a downward trend, but this is only a judgment based on short-term funds; the overall upward trend cannot be changed. Especially recently, after the cryptocurrency market plummeted, it instead led to a wave of turnover in old wallets, and this turnover rate is still considerable, meaning that there are still more funds willing to take over.
Lao Cui's summary: I do not recommend shorting around the interest rate cut; including yesterday, Lao Cui directly pointed out that there will be growth, although so far, it has not reached our expected returns. But Lao Cui has indeed entered long positions, and the advice given to everyone is that Lao Cui has certainly acted. Regarding the current profit situation, I still have a clear grasp, especially during the weekend, when the movement of funds is not significant, making it particularly suitable for contract users to find low positions for ambush. Current contract users can respond with trends, seizing this wave of interest rate cuts, entering at the current price, and holding for about a week; going long can yield certain profits. Of course, if you want to enter the market in the short term, just maintain a profit of fifty percent; Bitcoin can stay within a few hundred points, and Ethereum within fifty points, today can all complete profit exits. If we consider Bitcoin's profit in thousands of points or Ethereum's profit in hundreds of points, it can basically be exited within one to two days around the interest rate cut. Everyone's layout should start from today and tomorrow, as these two days are likely to become recent low points. Lao Cui's entry points have been updated in the friend circle; if anyone has any questions, be sure to ask, as this concerns your own profits. In the cryptocurrency market, there is no such thing as first come, first served; only the unashamedly inquisitive. I will reply to everyone whenever I see it in my spare time!
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on one piece or one position, aiming for the ultimate victory, while the novice fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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