Choosing a time window with ample liquidity for TGE is crucial, so much so that it can overshadow the project's fundamentals.

Written by: Haotian

This morning, I came across a chart on Twitter that sparked some thoughts, and I’d like to share them:

1) Choosing a time window with ample liquidity for TGE is very important, to the extent that it can overshadow the project's fundamentals.

For example, $Pengu, an NFT community MEME token, launched during a period of high liquidity on December 17 last year, and performed better than most projects. In contrast, projects like $BABY and $HUMA, which have technical narratives and backing from VCs, launched during a relatively dry liquidity phase in April and May this year, and their performance was very poor.

2) Projects tend to cluster their launches, but it is essential to consider whether the market liquidity can support them.

For instance, in November-December last year, projects like Hyperliquid, Movement, Pengu, and Morpho emerged. Although their performances varied, most managed to run well; however, in April-May this year, projects like Babylon, Initia, Zora, Huma, and Sophon clustered together, resulting in insufficient liquidity and disappointing performances.

3) In the TGE time window, some projects may experience a "peak at opening" phenomenon.

Some projects take advantage of the market's ample liquidity and retail FOMO during TGE, ignoring their own fundamental shortcomings. For example, Dongxiang and Berachain saw overwhelming FOMO at launch, but ultimately ended in endless declines. This indicates that if market liquidity benefits are not supported by fundamentals, they can accelerate the "decline" of some projects.

4) In the wrong TGE time window, for projects that are fundamentally weak but have psychological backing, it can be a golden opportunity to discover value.

$ZORA is a typical example, launching during the market's coldest and most liquidity-deprived time, becoming the only winner among that batch of projects. An earlier example is $Virtual, which launched in the darkest times but consistently showcased strong fundamentals, leading a wave of Solana AI agent enthusiasm, allowing believers to win in the end.

5) Regardless of the strength or weakness of the exit time window, there will always be fundamentally excellent projects that eventually emerge.

For instance, Hyperliquid was able to build a large supporter community, leading a narrative wave for Perp Dex, and the price of $HYPE has seen a stair-step increase; @flock_io

Additionally, despite launching at the peak of last year's TRUMP hype for liquidity, where $FLOCK's minimum circulating market cap plummeted to an exaggerated 3 million, it also achieved a near-complete success in exchange listings due to its outstanding fundamentals, allowing believers to win in the end.

In conclusion, for most retail investors, understanding the importance of the TGE time window and adopting differentiated strategies is key: during strong TGE periods, avoid chasing highs and focus on quick in-and-out trades; during weak TGE periods, concentrate on research to find undervalued quality indices for long-term holding. Both strategies could lead to becoming the final winners, even though it may be challenging.

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