The now-closed cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox, headquartered in Tokyo, still holds approximately 34,689 bitcoins (BTC) ahead of the repayment deadline on October 31.
The exchange lost about 650,000 bitcoins due to undiscovered thefts from 2011 until its closure in 2014. Subsequently, around 200,000 bitcoins were recovered from an old-format wallet. These coins form the basis for repayments to creditors, managed by court-appointed trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi.
During 2017 and 2018, Nobuaki Kobayashi earned the title of "Tokyo Whale" for selling Mt. Gox bitcoins to repay in fiat currency. In mid-2024, there was a surge in activity in the Mt. Gox wallets, with about 100,000 bitcoins moving between Mt. Gox addresses for distribution, although not all were actually sold.
The repayment deadline has been extended by a year, giving creditors more time to complete the filing process. The wallets related to Mt. Gox still hold approximately $3.9 billion worth of bitcoins, which may raise concerns about selling pressure in the market again this Halloween.
The following will analyze the impact of bitcoin fund flows during Mt. Gox's bankruptcy and civil rehabilitation process on the market.
Nobuaki Kobayashi's first large-scale sale of bitcoins occurred between September 2017 and March 2018, with blockchain data showing the largest sell-off on February 6. By mid-March, Mt. Gox's bitcoin holdings had dropped to about 166,000, and Nobuaki Kobayashi disclosed that he had sold 35,841 bitcoins for 3.8 billion yen (approximately $360 million at the time).
In the current bitcoin economy, this does not seem to constitute a significant supply shock. On Wednesday, the market cap of bitcoin was $2.24 trillion, whereas in early February 2018, it was about $140 billion, with Nobuaki Kobayashi's sales accounting for approximately 0.26% of the total bitcoin value at that time.
Nobuaki Kobayashi's sale on February 6 also coincided with bitcoin dropping to around $6,000, which was the lowest point of the first quarter that year. Bitcoin had reached nearly $20,000 during the initial coin offering (ICO) boom in December 2017, before continuously declining.
Although bitcoin had been struggling after the ICO bubble burst, the sharp drop on February 6 was closely related to Nobuaki Kobayashi's large-scale sell-off. Nobuaki Kobayashi denied that his liquidation of Mt. Gox exacerbated the decline, but his actions still drew criticism from market observers.
After the ICO crash in early 2018, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry entered what is known as the first "crypto winter," characterized by liquidity drying up, slowed financing, and many crypto companies being forced to downsize or shut down.
Nobuaki Kobayashi then continued to sell bitcoins from Mt. Gox. Between April 27 and May 11, 2018, he sold a total of 24,658 bitcoins, reducing the exchange's holdings to 141,686. The first large sale on April 27 was about 15,000 bitcoins. Bitcoin saw a significant drop from April 25 to 26, rebounding on April 27 and slightly rising to nearly $10,000 in the second quarter of 2018. Nobuaki Kobayashi's second large sale on May 11 again coincided with a price drop from the peak.
This was also Nobuaki Kobayashi's last sale of Mt. Gox's bitcoins. In June, after creditors filed a petition, the Tokyo District Court suspended the bankruptcy proceedings and initiated civil rehabilitation, appointing Nobuaki Kobayashi as the rehabilitation trustee. The bankruptcy process would convert non-monetary claims into cash; however, civil rehabilitation does not liquidate bitcoin claims, and the court-approved plan allows for distribution in bitcoin or bitcoin cash (BCH) rather than cash.
After Mt. Gox stopped selling, bitcoin maintained a price above $6,000 for most of that year until the Bitcoin Cash hard fork in November shook the market. Mt. Gox's holdings remained around 142,000 during this period.
By mid-2024, bitcoin's market position was far stronger than during the "Tokyo Whale" era, continuing to rise on the momentum of the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and was in the midst of a bull market peak, ultimately breaking $100,000 in December 2024.
In early July, Mt. Gox wallets began transferring bitcoins in preparation for repayments to creditors under the civil rehabilitation plan. The market initially worried that recipients would immediately sell. Bitcoin fell again after Kraken (one of the exchanges responsible for distribution) announced the completion of the process on July 24.
Some analysts speculated that up to 99% of creditors might sell immediately after receiving their shares. However, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that after the actual repayment began, "trading volume did not significantly surge."
As of August 1, Arkham data showed that Mt. Gox's holdings had decreased by nearly 100,000, with the trustee still controlling about 46,000 bitcoins.
On October 10, 2024, Nobuaki Kobayashi announced that he had completed repayments to most certified creditors, but some remained incomplete due to filing or procedural issues.
With court approval, the repayment deadline was extended from October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2025, and the trustee urged remaining creditors to complete the relevant materials through the Mt. Gox filing portal.
As of now, the Mt. Gox wallet still holds approximately 34,689 bitcoins, valued at about $3.9 billion, awaiting distribution.
In March 2025, the exchange began transferring assets between its wallets, likely in preparation for further repayments ahead of the Halloween deadline.
Related: The head of Polygon stated that he has been "questioning his loyalty to Ethereum (ETH)."
Original article: “The Ghost of Mt. Gox Will Stop Haunting Bitcoin (BTC) This Halloween”
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