If a quantum computer capable of breaking modern encryption technologies were to go online today, Bitcoin could be attacked—without anyone noticing.
According to David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, a company focused on post-quantum infrastructure, in an interview with Cointelegraph: “Everything looks like legitimate access. When you think you see a quantum computer, it has actually been in control of the system for months.”
He added that users wouldn’t even be aware.
IBM, Google, and government-backed labs are accelerating their research, but time is still of the essence. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has begun approving post-quantum algorithms, while most public blockchains still rely on cryptographic technologies designed in the 1980s.
Currently, this threat remains theoretical. But once it becomes a reality, Carvalho warns, Bitcoin's defense mechanisms could collapse faster than the network can respond.
The core security of Bitcoin relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), a cryptographic standard proposed as early as 1985. Users can prove ownership through a private key, while the network only publicly reveals the corresponding public key.
In theory, with Shor's algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could directly derive the private key from the public key. This would allow attackers to access any wallet whose public key has been exposed on the chain, such as those used in early Bitcoin (BTC) transactions.
According to Carvalho: “Since the quantum computer gains legitimate access, it cannot be proven that an attack has been executed. You would only see these Bitcoins being transferred as if the holders were using them normally.”
Kapil Dhiman, CEO and founder of Quranium, a first-tier blockchain startup focused on post-quantum security, warns that the earliest and most obvious victims will be the oldest wallets.
He stated in an interview with Cointelegraph, “Satoshi's coins will become 'live targets.' If these coins are transferred, confidence in Bitcoin will be shattered before the system collapses.”
In this scenario, the blockchain would still process transactions normally. Blocks would continue to be mined, and the ledger would remain intact, but the ownership of Bitcoin would quietly change.
In fact, with the improvement of GPU performance and algorithm optimization, the efficiency of brute-force attacks has increased. However, the ECDSA using 256-bit keys still far exceeds current traditional computing capabilities.
Banks, telecom networks, and government agencies have begun testing post-quantum cryptographic technologies, while most mainstream blockchains still rely on 1980s technology.
Dhiman stated: “All blockchains have regarded this vulnerability as a fundamental issue.” He referred to the risk that current cryptographic methods like ECDSA could be broken by quantum computers.
Transforming Bitcoin into a quantum-resistant model requires a complete overhaul of the network consensus rules, necessitating broad collaboration among miners, developers, and users.
Researchers have proposed preliminary solutions, including Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP360), which outlines a path for adopting new cryptographic schemes, and a proposal for “post-quantum migration and phasing out old signature schemes,” gradually eliminating the old signature schemes. Ethereum developers are also exploring lattice-based signatures and other quantum-resistant options, but no solutions have been implemented yet.
In traditional finance, this transition has already begun. The U.S. NIST has approved relevant algorithms, JPMorgan has collaborated with Toshiba to test quantum-safe blockchains, and SWIFT has provided post-quantum security training for its network.
Carvalho stated: “Traditional finance is actually ahead. They have centralized control, budgets, and a single authority capable of driving upgrades. The crypto industry lacks these; everything must reach consensus.”
Some emerging blockchain projects have positioned themselves as quantum-ready from the start. Naoris Protocol, led by David Carvalho, was mentioned in an independent proposal submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, discussing post-quantum standards; Kapil Dhiman's Quranium employs NIST-approved stateless hash signature algorithms. Meanwhile, Quantum Resistant Ledger is a blockchain built around the hash signature XMSS, which is also an algorithm standardized by NIST.
For ordinary Bitcoin holders, the main concern is a sudden collapse of confidence, which could lead to a price crash and impact traditional markets—especially as institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies is accelerating.
Carvalho stated: “There is a non-zero probability that this situation has already occurred. The consensus in science, research, and the military is that it has not yet happened.”
He added, mentioning the Enigma machine.
The Enigma machine was used by Nazi Germany during World War II and was considered unbreakable at the time. However, cryptanalysts led by Alan Turing and the Bletchley Park team quietly broke the code. The Allies kept this breakthrough secret so that Germany would continue using the machine.
Carvalho warned: “When you think you see a quantum computer, it has actually been in control of the system for months.”
But experts remain optimistic, believing that quantum-resistant blockchain systems are achievable, and the industry is trying to align with the standards already adopted by traditional finance.
Dhiman stated: “Quantum-safe systems are possible. We just need to start building before the threat becomes a reality.”
Currently, the quantum threat remains theoretical. Bitcoin encryption is still robust, and computers capable of breaking it exist only in theory.
Related: The new film "Code is Law" explores the ethical dilemmas behind crypto hacking.
Original article: “What If Quantum Computers Already Broke Bitcoin (BTC)?”
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