Key Points:
Ethereum has rebounded from a key support convergence, making $4500 within reach again.
The MVRV indicator shows that the ETH price remains above the support level and is targeting an increase to $5000.
Ethereum's native token, ETH, has rebounded over 15% within two weeks after dropping to a two-month low of $3435. Multiple indicators now suggest that ETH may extend its recovery to $4500 before the end of October.
The rebound in Ethereum appears to be forming a bullish flag pattern, a structure that typically signals the continuation of an existing uptrend after a brief consolidation.
In the case of ETH, the flag is represented by a descending parallel channel that formed after a sharp rise from the April low of about $2500 to the August high of about $4950, as shown below.
The recent rebound from the lower boundary of the channel near $3500 aligns with the support of the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; blue wave), a level that has historically attracted bottom buyers during bull markets.
If the recovery momentum continues, ETH may aim to break through the upper boundary of the channel, around the $4450-$4500 area, in October.
The mid-term upward target aligns with analyst FOUR's double bottom technical setup, which indicates that the ETH price will reach the neckline resistance of the structure at $4750 in the coming days.
Trader Luca further anticipates that ETH will rise to $4500 (the red area in the chart below), as it remains above the "weekly bull market support band," represented by the yellow area.
Meanwhile, a breakout of this area could push the price towards the bullish flag target above $5200, potentially setting a new all-time high by November.
A drop below the support convergence, the lower boundary of the bullish flag, and the 200-day EMA support (blue wave) around $3550 could invalidate this pattern, exposing ETH to a deeper correction to the $3000-$3200 range.
Ethereum's MVRV extreme deviation from the pricing band indicates that its recent pullback has stabilized around the mean band near $3900, a level that has historically served as a springboard for a new round of increases.
Each time ETH has rebounded from this midpoint, including early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024, it has advanced towards the +1σ (standard deviation) band, which currently hovers around $5000.
Additionally, this structure suggests that Ethereum is still in a "healthy correction" phase of the current bull market cycle, with no signs of peaking. If the mean range continues to provide support, the probability of the price hitting the $4500-$5000 range by the end of October is high.
Related: Polygon head says he has been "questioning his loyalty to Ethereum (ETH)"
Original: “Can Ethereum Price Reclaim $4500 in October?”
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