Bitcoin, which stood at a historical high of $125,000 at the beginning of October, plummeted over 15% after Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. In the past 24 hours, it hit a low of $103,500. This sell-off, ignited by political news, not only plunged the crypto market into panic but also triggered a large-scale adjustment in spot ETFs and leveraged positions. From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is currently under significant pressure.
Bitcoin closed at $106,479 on Friday, with a daily decline of 1.63% and a weekly decline expanding to 8.72%, marking the lowest closing price since July. At the same time, Ethereum also weakened, dipping to around $3,670 in the past 24 hours. The price drop led to leveraged liquidations, with a total of $1.02 billion to $1.2 billion in liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority. Bitcoin liquidations amounted to $453 million, while Ethereum liquidations reached $281 million.
In the face of such a sharp decline, there are three important indicators to watch in the near term:
1. Whether ETF fund flows continue to exit;
2. Whether the level of open contracts across the network further decreases;
3. The subsequent developments in US-China trade risks.
Only when fund outflows slow down, open contracts do not decrease further, and the tariff issue cools down, will the market have a chance to return to a bullish trend.
Yesterday, the expert suggested going long to $107,800; I wonder how many crypto friends followed along. Congratulations to those who did, and for those who didn't, don't worry, the expert will try to update daily. Alright, without further ado, let's continue analyzing the upcoming trends through Bitcoin's four-hour chart.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
Currently, the Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, indicating that the medium-term trend remains bearish. The price is currently below the middle band and has been repeatedly suppressed by it, suggesting strong selling pressure above, and the market has not yet completed a trend reversal signal. The lower band is around $104,000, which has recently become a key support area. If the price cannot effectively break through the middle band and close above it, the market is likely to continue oscillating along the lower band. Only if the price stabilizes above the middle band can it have a chance to recover to the upper band around $112,700. It is also important to note that the lower band has become a key short-term support level; if it is lost, a quick test of the previous low of $102,800 may occur.
In the MACD indicator, the DIF line is still below the DEA line and is operating below the zero axis, but the distance between the two lines is gradually narrowing, and the MACD green histogram is noticeably shortening, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum, with signs of a bottom divergence. If the MACD forms a golden cross and the histogram turns from green to red, a technical rebound may occur. Conversely, if it forms a dead cross again and the MACD green histogram expands, it would indicate that the rebound is merely a weak correction, and the trend continues to decline. Overall, the MACD is in the process of building a low-level recovery phase; if the price stabilizes above $107,000 and volume increases, the probability of a golden cross being established is high, and the rebound target could be aimed at the $110,000–$112,000 range.
Currently, the KDJ values are K=56, D=46, and J=75, indicating that the short-term is entering the overbought zone. Previously, the three lines formed a golden cross from a low position, driving a rebound from $103,620 to $107,000, but due to the high J value, there is a certain risk of a short-term pullback. If the KDJ forms a dead cross at a high level, it may mean that the rebound momentum is exhausted, and the price may retest the BOLL lower band support; however, if the KDJ maintains the golden cross and flattens at a high level, the bulls still have room for further upward movement. Overall, the KDJ supports the continuation of a short-term rebound, but caution is needed for a pullback in the overbought zone.
From the low of $102,000 in September to the high of $126,199 in October, the price is currently operating between the 23.6% ($107,777) and 0% ($102,087) retracement levels. It has previously received support multiple times around $107,000–$108,000, indicating that this area is a key defensive level. If it effectively breaks below the 23.6% retracement level, the bears will push the price to retest the previous low around $102,000. If it rebounds, the resistance levels above are 38.2% ($111,149) and 50% ($114,143), with strong resistance at 61.8% ($117,137). Only a volume breakout above the 50% Fibonacci level can confirm a medium-term reversal signal.
In summary, the Bitcoin four-hour chart currently shows a short-term rebound but remains bearish in the medium term. Short-term support is at $107,000 and $104,000, with a key support level at $102,000. Resistance above is at $108,500 and $110,000, with a medium-term pressure range of $114,000–$117,000. In terms of technical indicators, if the MACD forms a golden cross and the KDJ remains strong, a rebound to the $110,000–$112,000 range may occur. However, if the rebound fails and falls below $107,000, it may test $102,000 or even the $100,000 mark. Overall, Bitcoin is in a technical recovery phase, and market sentiment is relatively cautious. The short-term focus should be on the battle between bulls and bears in the $107,000–$108,500 range, as the breakout direction will determine the trend for the coming week.
Based on the above analysis, the expert offers the following suggestions for reference:
If Bitcoin rebounds to $107,800 and faces resistance, a short position can be taken, targeting around $104,000.
If Bitcoin rebounds and effectively stabilizes at $107,800, a long position can be pursued, targeting the $110,000–$112,000 range.
Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Learning to earn for a lifetime is more valuable than a momentary profit!
Written on: (2025-10-18, 20:15)
(Written by - Expert on Cryptocurrency) Disclaimer: There may be delays in online publication; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution!
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