Key Points:
Despite prices holding firm around $108,000, rising demand for put options and increased BTC deposits from miners indicate that traders are becoming increasingly cautious.
Analysts at Bitwise believe that a deep drop in market sentiment often signals a rebound, viewing this pullback as a "reverse buying window."
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $107,600 on Thursday, prompting traders to question whether Friday's flash crash signifies the end of the bull market that peaked on October 6. Warning signals from the Bitcoin options market have made traders more anxious, especially against the backdrop of increased outflows from miners, testing the strength of the $108,000 support level.
The delta skew of Bitcoin options has risen to over 10%, indicating that professional traders are paying a premium for put (sell) options, a typical sign of bearish sentiment. Under neutral conditions, this indicator usually fluctuates between -6% and +6%. More importantly, since Friday, the skew has intensified, suggesting that traders are increasingly skeptical about Bitcoin's bullish momentum.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the trade war with China is still ongoing, which has also put pressure on market sentiment. Trump threatened to further restrict trade with China after suspending purchases of U.S. soybeans, according to Yahoo Finance. Another factor adding pressure is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic data, as the government shutdown continues.
On Thursday, demand for downside protection strategies on Deribit surged, with put option trading volume exceeding call options by 50%, indicating increased market pressure. This metric reached its highest level in over 30 days. Cryptocurrency traders typically maintain an optimistic outlook, so a neutral reading of the put-call ratio often hovers around -20%, favoring call options.
Bitcoin is not the only market affected by a shift in investor sentiment, as evidenced by gold reaching new highs on Thursday. Demand for short-term U.S. Treasuries also surged, even as two Federal Reserve governors indicated further rate cuts in October—moves that typically reduce the attractiveness of fixed-income investments.
The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note fell to its lowest level in three years, showing that investors are willing to accept lower returns for the safety of government-backed assets. Meanwhile, gold rose to $4,300, marking a 23% increase since September, with central bank gold reserves now exceeding their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, according to Reuters.
Additionally, the technology sector has seen positive developments, including chipmaker TSMC (TSM) raising its outlook for 2025, and strong quarterly results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, yet the S&P 500 still fell 0.9% on Thursday. According to the Financial Times, the Dow Jones U.S. Select Regional Banks Index dropped 4.4%, with two financial institutions reporting losses in the private credit market.
The flow of funds from Bitcoin miner-related addresses has also raised concerns. Data from CryptoQuant shows that miners deposited 51,000 Bitcoins (worth over $5.5 billion) to exchanges in the past week, marking the largest outflow since July. Analysts note that such behavior typically signals a weakening price, as miners have been major holders of Bitcoin.
While warning signals from the Bitcoin options market point to concerns about further adjustments, Bitwise analysts state that extreme bearish sentiment often "marks favorable entry points," adding that "this round of adjustments is primarily driven by external factors." Bitwise's research director, André Dragosch, noted that Friday's liquidation event laid the groundwork for a "reverse buying window."
Bitcoin may still decline further, but the surge in demand for put options does not necessarily mean that bearish momentum will persist; external factors are simply making traders more risk-averse.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) retail interest is in a "bear market," cryptocurrency sentiment shifts to fear.
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Options Market Highlights Mounting Fears as Traders Brace for More Pain”
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