Key Points:
With the selling pressure from long-term holders easing, Bitcoin has broken through the $120,000 barrier.
Short-term holders are absorbing losses, indicating that the market is stabilizing.
The flow of neutral long-term holders may lay the groundwork for a decisive breakout.
On-chain data shows that as the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) diminishes, the market may be entering an accumulation phase.
Glassnode data indicates that the RVT metric for short-term holders has been continuously contracting since May, reflecting a cooling of speculative enthusiasm. Historical data shows that an increase in the RVT ratio typically corresponds to an overheated market. If the RVT ratio contracts to the "full market deleveraging" range, it suggests that short-term traders are seeing reduced profits compared to overall network activity. If this trend continues, investors may reposition themselves, driving a new round of accumulation. This will lay the foundation for clarifying the market direction.
On the supply side, the balance between long-term holders and institutional inflows remains crucial. After months of continuous distribution, data shows that the net position change (3D) indicator for long-term holders has now shifted to a neutral zone.
This suggests that the profit-taking that recently limited the upward trend may be weakening, potentially making exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and new inflows the main drivers of short-term momentum.
If this cooling of supply dynamics continues, Bitcoin may form a structural base in the $115,000 to $120,000 range, similar to the consolidation phase observed in March and April, when the neutral flow of long-term holders indicated a continuation of sharp rises.
As the distribution from long-term holders decreases and short-term excess is digested, analysis suggests that the market may be preparing for a decisive breakout, with $120,000 becoming a key threshold to watch.
At the same time that the long-term supply side cools, short-term investor behavior is also releasing important signals. CryptoQuant data shows that recent short-term holders (STH) have experienced a period of pressure, with STH-SOPR dropping to 0.992 in September, indicating that speculative wallets have remained in a state of loss, which is typically a signal for "weak hands" to exit the market.
However, last week the metric slightly rebounded to 0.995, still below August's 0.998, but showing early signs of stabilization.
Historically, this reset often unfolds in two ways: an extended loss realization driving a correction phase, or a "healthy reset," where selling pressure is quickly absorbed. As BTC solidifies its consolidation above $115,000, the rebound of STH-SOPR may be a potential sign of market resilience before a new bullish phase.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) retail interest is in a "bear market," cryptocurrency sentiment shifts to fear
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks $120K as On-Chain Data Points to a New Accumulation Phase”
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