Key Points:
The NUPL indicator for Bitcoin has repeated the performance seen at past bull market peaks, shifting from "optimism" to "euphoria."
The realized market cap of Bitcoin is increasingly held by short-term holders.
New investors continue to be squeezed by the range-bound performance of BTC prices.
Research indicates that despite the recent pullback in Bitcoin prices, it may be in the "final expansion phase," approaching a peak.
In Wednesday's Quicktake blog, the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant showcased the historical repetition of Bitcoin prices.
As the balance of control shifts between old holders and new holders, Bitcoin is heading towards the peak of its new cycle.
CryptoQuant data shows that the unrealized profit and loss ratio (NUPL) has entered the region associated with previous explosive peaks.
"NUPL is currently at +0.52, which historically marks the transition from optimism to euphoria," wrote XWIN Research Japan.
Speculative entities—those holding for no more than 155 days and defined as short-term holders (STH)—now account for a record 44% of Bitcoin's realized market cap.
Realized market cap is the total price of supply at the last movement. CryptoQuant explains that a high STH ratio means new investors are inheriting supply from profit-taking old investors. This includes the largest investor group, the whales.
"In past cycles, this shift in dominance from LTH to STH coincided with the final expansion phase of the bull market," the article continued.
According to XWIN, the current bull market is different from previous ones. The impact of changes in the realized market cap structure may be mitigated due to large-scale institutional participation.
The article adds that this time the structure seems different: ETF inflows, stablecoin liquidity expansion, and institutional participation are absorbing selling pressure, creating a more stable euphoria phase.
Cointelegraph reports that the short-term holder group of Bitcoin is currently facing profit-taking pressure.
CryptoQuant data shows that as of Tuesday, their overall cost basis is $112,500, making this week's Bitcoin price range critical for overall profitability.
The cost basis, also known as the realized price, serves as support during bull market pullbacks, but its loss could turn the trend line into resistance.
CryptoQuant data indicates that this volatility is currently occurring as spot prices fluctuate around the STH cost basis trend line.
Related: Bitwise: 48 new Bitcoin (BTC) reserve companies added in just three months
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Indicator Shows ‘Euphoria Phase,’ $112,500 Price Point Puts Pressure on New Buyers”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
