In recent years, the crypto prediction market has undergone a rapid transformation from an "underground laboratory" to a "dual embrace of policy and capital." The most striking signal comes from traditional financial institutions making direct bets in this field—Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, plans to make a significant investment in Polymarket, indicating that large exchanges are beginning to view event-driven market data as a commercializable sentiment and information product.
At the same time, there has been a substantial loosening or adjustment in regulatory attitudes. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has provided practical leniency for Polymarket's return, accompanied by discussions on whether its mergers and acquisitions can open pathways for compliant operations. This regulatory action has allowed prediction contracts, once seen as "illegal gambling" or "without legal protection," to potentially be repositioned within the existing derivatives framework.
The evolution on the technical side is also noteworthy. Decentralized platforms and infrastructure projects continue to iterate on oracles, settlement, and clearing mechanisms, with some projects attempting to introduce AI agents and automated market-making to enhance market efficiency and liquidity. These improvements in technology and market design will directly impact information aggregation capabilities and price discovery quality, thereby determining whether prediction markets can undertake broader practical functions.
The influx of capital and technological advancements do not bring unidirectional benefits. Firstly, the entry of mainstream financial institutions may lead to product homogenization and bring about costs and restrictions related to prudent compliance; secondly, the social attributes of prediction markets (political and event sensitivity) mean that regulatory and public opinion risks are long-term concerns, and any sudden shifts in regulatory winds could quickly affect market participation thresholds and tradable assets.
For investors and product designers, the current window of opportunity should lean more towards institutionalized layouts rather than mere speculation. On one hand, the path to regulation opens channels for institutional-level market-making, risk hedging, and data authorization; on the other hand, designs need to enhance market integrity, prevent manipulation (especially in thinly liquid small event markets), while balancing privacy and transparency.
Looking ahead, prediction markets are expected to differentiate along three main lines: first, an "institutionalized" market that combines with traditional derivatives and operates as a compliant exchange within a regulatory framework; second, a public chain native market that maintains decentralized and censorship-resistant characteristics for research and academic information aggregation; third, "data as an asset" products centered around AI and synthetic data services, providing financial institutions with new sentiment and event factors. The coexistence of different forms will affect liquidity distribution and price discovery efficiency.
In conclusion, the most important focus at this stage is not to blindly chase popularity, but to pay attention to three key indicators: regulatory compliance pathways (regulatory exemptions, mergers, or licenses), technical scalability (oracle and clearing reliability), and the sustainability of liquidity and market-making support. Only with substantial progress in all three areas can prediction markets evolve from "sentiment tools" to information infrastructure adopted by mainstream finance.
Related: Cryptocurrency Derivatives Funding Rates Drop to 3-Year Low: A Bullish Signal?
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