Bitcoin broke to $126,223 on Monday night, marking another record as a U.S. shutdown, softer dollar, and surging ETF inflows converged to tighten supply and extend the rally.
Prices hold near $125,200 into Europe hours, building on a 15% weekly gain that has pulled majors higher across the board.

The move wasn’t a leverage-led spike. Weekly spot ETF inflows crossed $3.2 billion, the highest since November 2024 and second-largest on record, pushing total allocations since January to more than $60 billion.

Exchange balances have fallen to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, with 170,000 withdrawn in the past month, signaling coins moving off exchanges and into longer-term storage. It’s that combination of steady ETF buying and shrinking supply that seemingly underpins this move.

A U.S. government shutdown is entering its second week, stalling key economic releases and creating uncertainty about fiscal direction just as investors look for clarity on growth. In the past, such shutdowns have often nudged capital toward hard assets like gold and bitcoin, reflecting concerns of political stability and its impact on fiat or equity markets.

At the same time, the dollar has softened, removing a headwind for dollar-denominated assets, and bond markets are starting to price a more cautious Federal Reserve.

Traders increasingly expect that a combination of weaker data prints and fiscal paralysis will force policymakers to tread carefully on rates or at least avoid tightening further.

For bitcoin, that reads as easier liquidity conditions ahead, with the kind of dovish bias that has historically accompanied major upside runs in the overall market.

BTC Zooms to Highs in Europe and Japan

Elsewhere, Bitcoin has broken records in euro and Swiss franc terms, crossing €106,000 and CHF 99,600, as well in Japan. The country’s new prime minister is signaling a return to Abenomics-style easing, which plays directly into the market’s narrative of easier liquidity conditions ahead, as CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole noted on Monday.

This ETF-driven demand is echoed by some analysts.

“Bitcoin’s climb above $124,000, fueled by $3.2 billion in spot ETF inflows, underscores deepening institutional conviction and a maturing market narrative,” said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, in a note to CoinDesk.Meanwhile, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich warned that long-term holders have been active sellers around these levels since July, meaning supply is waiting if demand falters.

Major tokens are riding the tide. Ether surged 4% to $4,700, its highest in three weeks, with traders eyeing the $4,800–$5,000 range if momentum holds.

BNB continues to be the outlier, up more than 20% in the past week and setting fresh records above $1,240, a move that highlights rotation into ecosystem names when the base asset has a bid. Dogecoin gained 6% to $0.26, XRP ticked higher to nearly $3, and Solana has added over 12% in the past seven days.

The breadth of this rally is important. Total crypto market capitalization climbed to $4.27 trillion before easing slightly to $4.24 trillion. The sentiment index sits at 71 (greed), close to levels last seen in August but short of euphoric. That leaves room for extension without the signs of a blow-off top.

My lens is clear: $125,000 is a magnet and now a battle line.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。