Spot gold climbed to a peak of $3,950 before settling around $3,948, marking a 2.7% weekly gain driven by weak U.S. jobs data, falling bond yields, and a dovish Federal Reserve outlook that weakened the dollar. Over the past month, prices have risen 8.25%, fueled by central bank buying and inflation hedging, with UBS analysts eyeing $4,200 by year-end amid persistent macro risks.

Yet, overbought signals flash caution: traders watch for pullbacks to $3,600-$3,700 levels, as short-term corrections could precede fresh highs. Ahead, focus shifts to U.S. payrolls, inflation readings, and escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Taiwan, which could propel gold toward $4,000 if uncertainties deepen. Institutional flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain robust, underscoring gold’s allure as a portfolio shield in turbulent times, though profit-taking looms if equities rebound.

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