Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have become the center of attention when it comes to economic and political events and their consequences. The possibility of an upcoming U.S. federal government shutdown, as Republicans and Democrats fail to reach a middle ground to pass the required regulations to avert it, is now in the spotlight on these two platforms.

Bets based on the possible outcome of this event have garnered significant volume, amassing over $4.6 million at the time of writing. The two prediction markets estimate the chance of a government shutdown at over 78%, as both parties are currently playing the blame game on the issue.

However, the possibility of a last-minute negotiation cannot be ruled out, as it has happened before. Degens could be eyeing these moves to strike in the opposite direction with the high-risk possibility of large payouts.

Nonetheless, the latest negotiations seem to have stalled, as Vice President JD Vance said after a recent meeting that he thought the country was headed into a shutdown. “I hope they change their mind, but we’re going to see,” he added.

This would be the first government shutdown in several years, but federal workers might face a tougher fate than being suspended this time.

The Trump Administration has warned about mass layoffs, with President Trump himself stating that if a shutdown does happen, the government would “cut a lot of the people that we’re able to cut on a permanent basis.”

The popularity of prediction markets keeps growing, as the volumes that its users pour into them. Recently, Kalshi reached a milestone, having surpassed the volumes reached on election day, trading $500 million in just a weekend. Even so, reports indicate the two companies are weighing new fundraising rounds at valuations reaching into the billions.

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