Key Points:
BTC rose 4.5% in 48 hours, returning to $114,000.
The reset of BTC's open interest shows that after the long positions were deleveraged, the upward momentum is healthier.
The CME gap is located around $111,300, which remains a short-term risk factor affecting bullish momentum.
BTC's price climbed 4.5% in less than 48 hours, reaching $114,000 again on Monday. This recovery followed a sharp adjustment from last Monday to Saturday, with data indicating that this pullback was not due to aggressive shorting, but rather a deleveraging by long positions, building a more robust foundation for future upward trends.
From September 21 to Saturday, BTC fell from $115,600 to $109,500, a decline of 5.3%, while open interest (OI) in futures dropped from $42.6 billion to $39.9 billion, a decrease of 6.2%. The 30-day correlation between price and OI tightened to +0.46, indicating that long positions are reducing exposure rather than shorts pushing prices lower. Such resets typically clear excessive leverage, paving the way for a healthier upward market.
The dynamics in the spot market are also improving. Buyers continue to dominate centralized exchanges, with a 30-day net inflow remaining negative at around 170,000 BTC, meaning the amount of coins leaving the exchanges exceeds those entering. This pattern is often seen as a sign of capital accumulation and reduced selling pressure.
At the same time, crypto market researcher Dom pointed out that recent targets may be above $115,000. The analyst noted:
The funding rate has cooled to a neutral range, eliminating the risk of a cascading long liquidation, and instead supports a gradual rebuilding of leverage. However, there is still a lack of synergy between the cumulative volume delta (CVD) in the spot market and open interest.
During Monday's rebound, the spot CVD remained relatively stable while open interest gradually increased. If the price can stabilize above $113,000, this price movement may attract more spot buying, laying the groundwork for the long-awaited "Uptober" rally.
Despite BTC breaking through $114,000, derivatives traders may still be closely monitoring the unfilled price gap at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is between $111,300 and $110,900. The CME gap formed when BTC futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reopened at different prices after the weekend closure, leaving a noticeable blank area on the technical charts. Historically, BTC has shown a strong tendency to revisit these price levels, and notably, every gap that has appeared since June of this year has ultimately been completely filled.
Analysts point out that this phenomenon suggests a potential short-term pullback to the $111,000 area before the price recovery trend continues. This CME gap coincides with the fair value gap, and a drop to $111,000 would also touch the internal liquidity block between $112,300 and $111,400.
Therefore, a short-term decline of BTC to these price levels remains a possible trend in the coming trading days. Technical analysis shows that if a strong daily close above $115,000 occurs, it would invalidate the immediate bullish signal, potentially reducing the likelihood of BTC dropping to $111,000.
Although historical trends indicate that filling the CME gap is not an absolute certainty, its recent 100% closure rate makes it a key technical indicator for traders assessing the short-term risks in BTC's overall bullish outlook for the fourth quarter.
Related: Analysts say the likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) hitting the $300,000 target "is increasingly rising."
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Gears Up for ‘Uptober’ After Rally to $114K Revives Bullish Sentiment”
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