Bitcoin rebounded at the end of September, with monthly and quarterly closings approaching.
Bitcoin's price movement was unexpected, breaking through $112,000 at the week's close, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Liquidity games are playing out again, with observers warning of a downward trend to liquidate late-stage longs.
U.S. employment data became the macro focus of the week, putting continued pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Gold set a new historical high at the beginning of the week, with the market expecting Bitcoin to follow suit.
On-chain data shows that speculators are panic-selling Bitcoin at the lows, while "old hands" remain steady.
Bitcoin's weekly candle closed above a key price level, which seems highly unlikely in recent times.
After threatening to drop below the September low of $109,000, Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar (BTC/USD) rebounded at the last moment, reclaiming the $112,000 support.
According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data, Bitcoin's price remained strong during the first Asian trading session of the week.
Market participants remain cautious when commenting on the latest Bitcoin price movements, believing more evidence is needed to confirm a full return of the bull market.
“$BTC is rising like $ETH, mainly due to short positions being liquidated,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows posted on X, mentioning that the largest altcoin, Ethereum, is also recovering.
Well-known trader Roman expressed a similar view, expecting the price to fluctuate within a narrow range.
“It’s just a retest and resistance at the moment; unless we break through with high volume, there will be a ping-pong market between here and $108,000,” he summarized, calling for bulls to reclaim $118,000.
With less than 48 hours until the monthly and quarterly close, increased volatility is expected.
According to CoinGlass data, if Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar maintains at $112,000, the September increase will be locked in at 3%, while the third quarter will see an increase of about 4.4%.
These figures reflect Bitcoin's average performance, with historical returns in September and the third quarter showing significant volatility.
“$BTC's volatility is low, and the quarterly close is relatively stable. Such performance in the third quarter is not uncommon,” crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the data on Monday on X.
Daan Crypto Trades expects that based on historical performance, the fourth quarter will be “very exciting.”
“BTC has been relatively reliable, so I think it deserves more attention, especially as BTC has lagged behind $GOLD and stocks in recent weeks,” he summarized.
Bitcoin returned to $112,000 overnight, triggering a liquidity restructuring in the exchange order book.
According to CoinGlass data, after the price broke through late short positions, large players immediately increased sell order liquidity around $113,000.
The latest data shows that within 24 hours of writing, the total forced liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market was $350 million, with shorts accounting for $260 million.
Market commentators are actively assessing the next price movement of Bitcoin, with liquidity acting like a “magnet” attracting price fluctuations.
“I like that market sentiment has turned pessimistic after the HTF uptrend correction,” well-known trader CrypNuevo posted on X on Sunday.
Current data indicates that if the price falls below $107,000, up to $5 billion in long positions could be forcibly liquidated.
Additionally, the approaching monthly close has kept some market participants cautious.
This includes well-known trader Killa, who noted a new price gap in CME Group Bitcoin futures over the weekend—this price level itself is a “magnet.”
“If we reassess the price movement, we will see a rise when CME opens. Typically, such price gaps take a few days to a week to fill,” he pointed out on Monday.
This week, crypto and risk asset traders will once again focus on U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve officials' dynamics.
Several high-level officials will speak on the U.S. economic outlook, with current divisions on interest rate cuts becoming increasingly apparent.
Traders hope to see interest rate cuts, as this represents policy easing, meaning more liquidity flowing into risk assets.
Cointelegraph reported that members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve have significant disagreements on interest rate cuts and their pace.
Reportedly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke last week under strong pressure from U.S. President Trump to accelerate easing policies, attempting to strike a balance between hawks and doves.
“In recent months, the risk balance has shifted, prompting us to adjust our policy stance to be closer to neutral at last week's meeting,” he stated after the FOMC agreed to cut rates by 0.25% in September.
Reports indicate that Trump and others continue to call for the Federal Reserve to take more aggressive measures. In a now-deleted comic posted on the Truth Social platform over the weekend, Trump “fired” Powell and called for him to resign in 2025.
“If it weren't for Powell being too late, we would be at 2% now and achieving budget balance,” he stated in a subsequent post.
This week, private and public sector employment data and initial jobless claims will be released, becoming major potential volatility catalysts.
Although Bitcoin bulls have eased slightly this week, gold has once again become the market focus.
XAU/USD hit a historical high on Monday, breaking through $3,800 per ounce for the first time, due to a weaker dollar.
This trend continues a pattern that Bitcoin traders have generally focused on this quarter—gold outperforming Bitcoin.
In the latest edition of the "Macro Monday" newsletter, market insight resource Reflexivity Research noted the weakening Bitcoin/gold ratio, stating this “shows the market prefers gold as a hedge rather than Bitcoin.”
Supporters believe that Bitcoin's price movement may lag behind gold but will ultimately follow historical trends.
According to Andre Dragosch, head of European research at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, he associates the current situation with different macroeconomic phenomena.
“Why is Bitcoin lagging behind gold in 2025? Because gold is more sensitive to monetary policy and the dollar, while Bitcoin is more influenced by global growth expectations,” he stated on X on Monday.
Dragosch noted that just as growth expectations lag behind changes in monetary policy, Bitcoin will also follow gold's movements with a “significant rebound.”
Regarding Bitcoin investors' reactions to the recent price pullback, the latest analysis shows typical market behavior.
There is a significant difference between long-term holders and short-term holders, with the latter selling coins at a loss, while “old hands” remain steadfast.
According to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, this pullback is similar to previous ones and uses classic on-chain indicators.
“We saw the same situation at the end of 2024—short-term capitulation while long-term conviction remains strong—followed by a significant rebound,” contributor Woo Min-Kyu summarized.
The post used the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) derivative indicator to measure whether coins are moved on-chain at a profit or loss. The long-term and short-term SOPR ratio shows that new investors sold at a loss during the pullback.
CryptoQuant concluded that short-term pain brings long-term gains.
According to Cointelegraph, entities holding Bitcoin for no more than six months have historically been very sensitive to Bitcoin's price volatility, especially when the market reaches their average cost price.
According to CryptoQuant data, the current average cost price for short-term holders is about $109,800.
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This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) price may oscillate in the $108,000 range: 5 key points to watch this week”
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