This article is authorized to be reproduced from "Hua Li Hua Wai," and the copyright belongs to the original author.
Currently, the atmosphere in the market gives me the impression that many people are focusing more on short-term trading, eager to buy a coin in the morning and make a profit by the afternoon. Perhaps it's also because I personally am not very good at short-term trading; I still care more about the larger direction or long-term trends, which allows me to maintain relative patience.
In terms of the crypto market, it seems to be facing some interesting background conditions, such as a loosening monetary environment, continuously advancing and implementing regulatory systems, the potential approval of more ETFs, and increasing institutional participation… From a long-term perspective, all these factors can lead to changes in market structure and passive inflows or increases in capital.
However, the realistic thoughts of most people are often hard to change, but it is understandable. The desire to make quick money is a relatively normal psychology and emotion, and everyone faces different difficulties or problems, so it is difficult (and we are not obligated) to require everyone to look further ahead and bet on long-term development trends.
In the past few days, the market seems to have put many people in a dilemma. For example, yesterday (September 27), I saw a message from a friend in the backend saying: I originally planned to sell when ETH reached $5000, but now it has dropped to $4000, and I have gone from floating profit to floating loss. I regret not selling Ethereum when the price was around $4950 last month. Will I still have the chance to see $5000 ETH?
This also seems to be an interesting question:
Regarding ETH, we believe that the $5000 level is definitely achievable, and we still consider $10,000 as a reasonable psychological barrier. It is just a matter of time. Therefore, the core of this question is not whether there is a chance to see Ethereum at $5000, but rather how much time and capital you are willing to invest for that. Just like when we started the first round of dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin in 2019, we believed that Bitcoin would definitely rise to $100,000 in the future. This persistence has quietly continued for more than five years until Bitcoin officially breaks the psychological barrier of $100,000 in 2024.
1) From a psychological perspective, first of all, we believe that any trading requires the formulation of both Plan A and Plan B. If your Plan A goal is to sell at $5000 this year, then you should also consider what your plan is if the market experiences a pullback (or directly enters a phase of bear market) without reaching that goal this year.
Secondly, if you want to reduce your trading risk, it is best to use funds that do not affect your real life to participate in trading. The simplest operation is definitely to buy and sell in batches, rather than getting caught up in always buying at the ideal lowest point or selling at the ideal highest point.
In simpler terms, if your emotions have been negatively affected by the recent pullback, or if you are feeling a bit desperate (looking for advice everywhere), then it is advisable to calm down and try to adjust your trading mindset and strategy.
2) From a market perspective, on the daily chart, ETH's RSI approached the oversold area again a couple of days ago. If we refer to previous clear oversold areas, we can find that from a technical perspective, a local rebound cannot be ruled out. As shown in the figure below.
If we look at the weekly chart, after experiencing a strong rally, ETH's price has shown a noticeable pullback in the last two weekly candles, and the long upper shadow indicates strong resistance above. The current price around $4000 is also close to the previous support zone. As shown in the figure below.
Additionally, the weekly RSI currently appears to be in a relatively neutral state, but there is a certain risk of a top divergence in the overall trend. The weekly MACD momentum is also beginning to weaken (showing signs of a crossover). Let's see how it goes; if the MACD yellow line (as shown in the figure above) crosses down, it may lead to a deeper adjustment.
Currently, the important support level for ETH is in the $3600 - $3800 range. We can only hope that it does not fall below $3600, and the next movements will also depend on some potential catalysts in the fourth quarter of this year (such as the continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the review results of altcoin ETFs).
Of course, while paying attention to altcoins, we still need to keep an eye on BTC, as the current crypto market environment still depends on BTC's overall trend. We also need to continue to focus on the inflow/outflow of existing ETFs and the changes in institutional ETH holdings and costs (for example, BMNR's ETH holding cost is around $3800).
Here, we still maintain the previous viewpoint that the fourth quarter will be a period of both opportunities and risks. From historical experience and patterns, it seems that the time left for ordinary people in this phase of the bull market is limited.
Recently, I have noticed that there are two types of questions frequently appearing in the backend. One type is related to Alpha airdrops, and the other is related to financial management. I also specifically looked at the timestamps of these messages, and they are mostly from newcomers (i.e., those who have been following "Hua Li Hua Wai" for a relatively short time).
Some individuals even left messages asking if I have any courses or tutorials on Alpha airdrops that they could pay for, as they heard from others that participating in Alpha airdrops could easily earn tens of thousands each month, and they want to give it a try.
There are definitely no courses available; I have never offered any courses. As for tutorials, since I do not participate in Alpha, I have not systematically organized any. However, I believe it is completely unnecessary to spend money on courses or tutorials. Spending some time to find relevant information and studying for a day should be enough to understand it. In my view, not everything should be about expecting others to do the work for you.
There is currently an interesting phenomenon where some people promote that participating in Alpha airdrops can help you easily earn tens of thousands each month, but you need to spend a few hundred dollars to buy a course or join a group, and then they will guide you step by step on how to participate in Alpha airdrops.
However, similar phenomena exist in real life. For example, when facing some problems or difficulties, many people think about taking shortcuts or finding so-called tricks. Just like many people have felt that finding a job has become more difficult in recent years, I have also noticed that some bloggers online amplify various social hot topics or create anxiety about job hunting, selling courses on how to improve interview skills or find jobs. As a result, most of the people attending the classes still cannot find jobs, while some bloggers selling anxiety and courses can easily earn hundreds of thousands each year.
I remember that in the series of articles from 2022 and 2023, "Hua Li Hua Wai" also discussed a lot about airdrop topics. However, starting from 2024, I have rarely talked about airdrops because I basically no longer participate in this. However, this does not prevent me from providing some simple airdrop suggestions for those in need. Here, let's briefly talk about Binance Alpha:
First, if you want to participate, you can start by visiting the official website to understand the basic rules or gameplay, and then calculate how many points you can earn each day based on their points system. This can be directly checked in the Alpha activity and the relevant tutorial in the help center, as shown in the figure below.
Secondly, you can follow the "Binance Chinese" channel in the Binance Square to see the latest airdrop announcements, or directly use third-party tools like Alpha123 to monitor or subscribe to the latest airdrop project information, as shown in the figure below.
Finally, the rest is up to your execution ability and continuous experience summarization. You can also consider using some related tutorials published by others to improve your operations. For example:
You plan to use several Binance accounts to continue participating (i.e., in addition to your own account, you can also use family members' identities and phones for multiple account participation).
Whether you are increasing trading volume on the exchange or in your wallet, pay attention to the wear and tear issue (based on discussions among partners in the group, currently, the wear and tear for brushing a trading volume of $60,000 is about $4, as shown in the figure below).
Pay more attention to the latest activities and rules, such as the recent 4x trading points launched by Binance. It is best to find stable ones to brush, as shown in the figure below, and when operating, you can make good use of the "reverse order" function to quickly complete transactions.
In short, if you want to participate in something, you can first understand, then execute, and while executing, continuously optimize using tools (self-organized spreadsheets or third-party tools). DYOR; if done well, I don't know if you can earn tens of thousands each month, but achieving a few hundred dollars in profit with one account is likely feasible.
Of course, besides the Binance Alpha mentioned above, you can also consider participating in Alpha on exchanges like OKX or participating in airdrops from some on-chain projects. For example, I have noticed that the airdrop heat for Perps DEX is relatively high, and many people are discussing and participating in projects like Lighter (which distributes a fixed number of 250,000 points to participating users weekly, with 30-50% of tokens confirmed for airdrop) and Extended (which distributes about 1 million to 1.1 million points weekly, with 30% of tokens confirmed for airdrop, TGE planned for the first half of 2026). This depends on your personal time and energy situation.
Another point to remind is that there are currently many so-called on-chain airdrop projects, and participating in more does not necessarily mean better. In my view, 99% of airdrops are not worth your time and effort to participate in. It is best to focus your energy and funds on the projects you are most optimistic about and have higher certainty. If you are unsure about a project, you can also consider using some tools for necessary analysis, such as directly using tools like asksurf (which can be seen as a ChatGPT-type tool in the crypto field) to ask questions, as shown in the figure below.
For most people, there are two main ways to participate in financial management: one is through exchanges, and the other is based on on-chain activities. The financial management options on exchanges are relatively simple, so we won't discuss them here. Next, let's talk about on-chain financial management options.
The most important thing when participating in on-chain financial management is to organize a checklist and allocate funds based on your checklist. At the same time, the so-called risk and return coexist. We should not ignore the risk to the principal in pursuit of higher returns, meaning you should organize a relatively reliable checklist.
So where should we look for the projects on this checklist? What aspects should we pay attention to when selecting projects or pools? Here, we will briefly list some points:
First, we can use some on-chain tools to filter projects. For example, using the currently popular DeFiLlama tool, click on the Metrics sidebar, then click on the Yields button in the right navigation bar. After entering the All Pools page, you will see thousands of on-chain yield opportunities, as shown in the figure below.
Secondly, we can perform some necessary filtering among the many yield options. For example, you can:
In the Tokens option, select AllUSDStables to view the current stablecoin yield opportunities on the chain (of course, you can also choose other asset categories that interest you).
In the TVL Range option, use the range filter to limit the TVL to a minimum of $10,000,000 (specifically, it depends on your own risk preference; generally, the higher the TVL, the relatively better the safety, but the yield may be relatively lower).
In the Attributes option, select No IL (no impermanent loss), Audited (audited), and Million Dollar (pools with at least a million dollars).
In the APY option, set your desired yield target range, or directly click on APY to sort the yields by the highest APY, as shown in the figure below.
Finally, you can add the filtered projects (or corresponding pools) to your checklist and use your wallet to research and participate in the corresponding projects based on your risk preference (if the amount of funds is relatively large, it is recommended to allocate multiple wallets for participation; do not put all your eggs in one basket).
Of course, tools like DeFiLlama are only used to enhance our filtering efficiency. You may need to understand or research the projects from more dimensions. As for which aspects to focus on when researching projects, it also depends on your personal preferences. Our general suggestions include:
Do not participate in projects you do not understand just to pursue ultra-high yields. What you see is someone else's high yield, while what they are looking at may be your principal.
The project should at least be Audited (audited project pools are definitely safer than those that are not audited).
The project's TVL should not be too low; it is best to be above $10 million, otherwise, there is a risk of direct exit (of course, high TVL projects may also face exit or hacking risks; there is no absolute safety, only relative safety).
Whether the project has received investment from some well-known venture capital institutions (if there are investment institutions behind it, at least the project is less likely to die quickly; of course, this is also relative and can serve as auxiliary reference).
Whether the project has its own characteristics or unique products (if it is merely a fork product based on UNI, it basically has no future; pay more attention to those with certain innovative capabilities or that can generate new ways of earning).
Whether the project has a strong community or good marketing storytelling ability (if a project's TG or DC is filled with bots and the official never responds to users' doubts or questions, then do not waste too much time on such projects).
In short, besides daily trading, there are actually many money-making opportunities in the crypto market. Some people excel at making money through airdrop tasks, some are good at finding high-yield financial opportunities on-chain, and some are skilled at utilizing arbitrage (such as cross-chain arbitrage, funding rate arbitrage, etc.) to make money… Whether it is making money through traffic (airdrops or points tasks, KOL recommendations, etc.), or making money through capital (financial management, arbitrage, etc.), or investing/speculating (spot trading, contract trading), or other ways to make money (issuing tokens or NFTs, node mining, project development, etc.), do not be greedy. We need to find the subfields that interest us the most and where we excel, and strive to lead more people in those specific subfields. This is the foundation for us to maintain long-term profitability.
Related: The Hidden Forces Behind the Price Fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) — Options Expiration
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