1. Probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October rises to 87.7%

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, as of September 27, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 87.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 12.3%. -Original

2. Probability of U.S. government shutdown before October 1 rises to 71%

Prediction platform Polymarket data shows that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown before October 1 has risen to 71%, an increase of 17% from last week. The total betting amount in related markets is close to $950,000. Additionally, the probability of a government shutdown for the entire year of 2025 is priced at 82%. If a government shutdown occurs, the Federal Reserve's meeting may be affected due to data gaps. -Original

3. UAE royal family invests over $700 million in Bitcoin mining

According to Golden Finance, the UAE royal family has invested over $700 million in Bitcoin mining companies. -Original

4. Linea mainnet bridges over 1 million ETH

According to Dune data, the amount of ETH bridged on the Linea mainnet has reached 1,014,583, with a total of 1,297,267 transactions and 591,718 unique interacting addresses. -Original

5. Norwegian Bitcoin holding company Ace Digital approved for listing

According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, the Norwegian Bitcoin holding company Ace Digital has been approved for listing on the Euronext Growth Oslo. -Original

6. Hyperdrive suspends all money markets to investigate thBILL market anomalies

Hyperdrive announced on the X platform that two accounts in the thBILL market have experienced abnormal losses. To ensure platform security, Hyperdrive has decided to suspend all money markets and conduct further investigations. The platform emphasized that this issue will not affect the HYPED token. -Original

7. Bitcoin governance debate intensifies, community shows signs of division

It is reported that Luke Dashjr supports a controversial hard fork, leading to a division within the Bitcoin community. -Original

8. NYDIG calls for Bitcoin treasury companies to abandon "misleading" mNAV metric

Strive Asset Management has acquired Semler Scientific through an all-stock transaction to create a merged company with over 10,900 BTC. In response, NYDIG's global research director Greg Cipolaro pointed out in a report that the commonly used "mNAV" metric (defined as market cap divided by held cryptocurrencies) should be removed from industry reports. This acquisition highlights the potential issues with the "mNAV" metric, which is used to assess the value of Bitcoin treasury companies but may be misleading or dishonest. NYDIG noted that, first, mNAV does not consider the operational business or other assets that digital asset reserve companies (DAT) may have, while most large Bitcoin asset reserve companies do have value-creating businesses. Second, mNAV often uses "assumed shares outstanding," which may include convertible bonds that do not meet conversion conditions; convertible bondholders may demand cash repayment, making this liability much heavier for DAT than simply issuing shares, and convertible bonds are essentially volatility arbitrage tools, incentivizing DAT to maximize equity volatility. -Original

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