GM, let's take a quick look at the current situation of BTC and ETH!

First, let's look at the trend of Bitcoin: previously, BTC was unable to successfully break through the EMA52 moving average in the 45-minute timeframe; after breaking through, it was suppressed by the Vegas channel. Moreover, last night, the main force opened short positions and closed long positions, along with selling spot, amounting to over 300 million dollars. The price dropped significantly during the afternoon, testing the support level at 111.3K.

Here are a few key points to focus on: in the 90-minute timeframe, the MACD slow line is crossing below the zero line;

The support area is between 111450 and 111080, which is the magnetic area of the liquidation chart and a key position for large orders from the main force;

There is also the support from the chip peak over the past month.

There are too many false breakout signals, so it is essential to pay close attention to the breakout situation at the close.

Now let's look at Ethereum: this morning, a large trader executed a short order exceeding 60 million dollars, significantly increasing the open interest, while LSUR rose, indicating that retail investors were bottom-fishing while the main force was shorting (this is clearer when combined with the large orders from the main force).

Currently, there are large buy and sell orders above and below the current price of Ethereum.

The sell orders are just around the EMA24, which is a strong resistance level. If the volume does not keep up, it will be a weak rebound, generally caused by short covering.

At this price level, the main force is rotating positions, closing long positions, and opening new long positions, with both bulls and bears competing.

Additionally, we can also pay attention to the 3-day line for Ethereum — it is currently crossing below the EMA24 moving average.

The benefit of multiple moving averages is that after breaking below one moving average, it can use a lower moving average as support. For example, if the commonly used period is 2 days, Ethereum is currently crossing below the EMA31, and if it breaks below, we will look at the lower EMA55.

Next, I will share the combination usage of open interest and LSUR. Friends who trade contracts should be familiar with open interest; this indicator helps us see how much capital is currently in play: an increase in open interest indicates that someone is opening positions (either long or short); a decrease in open interest means someone is exiting the market.

LSUR is the ratio of long to short positions, mainly reflecting retail sentiment: a value > 1 indicates that most people are going long; < 1 indicates that most people are going short.

Scenario 1: Price rises + open interest rises + LSUR falls.

This is what people often refer to as the "bears providing fuel" market, which is one of the healthiest and strongest upward patterns. An increase in open interest indicates that new capital is continuously entering the market, and the driving force of the market is real (not caused by old positions being covered); a decrease in LSUR means that the number of long positions is decreasing and the number of short positions is increasing — retail investors are shorting while the main force is going long, making this upward movement more likely driven by the main capital.

Scenario 2: Price rises + open interest falls + LSUR falls.

A decrease in open interest indicates that the contract market is reducing positions and closing out, with no new capital support. This is what was mentioned earlier as a short covering market, which is a weak rebound, has poor sustainability, is suitable for high shorts, and can only be done in the short term.

Scenario 3: Price falls + open interest rises + LSUR rises.

An increase in open interest indicates that new positions are entering the market; an increase in LSUR represents retail investors bottom-fishing. This generally means that the main force is using the retail bottom-fishing funds to continue pushing down the price.

Scenario 4: Price falls + open interest falls + LSUR rises.

Here, retail investors are still going long, but the rise in LSUR indicates that the number of long positions is increasing while open interest is not increasing, meaning the main force has not entered the market. Unlike Scenario 3, this can be understood as the main force shorting — because open interest has increased while the number of short positions is low, the side with more concentrated capital is shorting, and when combined with large orders, it is clear that the main force is indeed shorting.

Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!

Official Telegram community: t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=7JmRjnl3w

This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。