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Daily Level: Moving Averages Entangled, Hiding Directional Choice
Today's Bitcoin daily chart shows a typical oscillating consolidation pattern, with the 50-day moving average and the 100-day moving average forming a golden cross and then entangling again in the current price area. This pattern usually indicates that the momentum of the previous trend has been exhausted. As of now, the price is fluctuating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the band width narrowing by 12% compared to yesterday, indicating that market volatility is gradually decreasing and a directional breakout is approaching.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reports 56.92, in a neutral to bullish range, but has retreated by 4 basis points from yesterday's high, indicating a marginal decline in bullish momentum. Although the MACD indicator maintains a golden cross state, the height of the red bars has shortened by 30% compared to the previous trading day, and the opening distance between the signal line and the MACD line is narrowing, suggesting that bullish momentum is weakening, and caution is needed for "top divergence" risks.
4-Hour Level: Intensified Support Level Game
In the 4-hour chart, the price is oscillating in the support range converted from the previously broken key resistance level of 114600, with multiple tests of this area resulting in rebounds, confirming the effectiveness of the support. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands and EMA24 form a double support overlay. If the price can stabilize in this area in the short term, it is expected to initiate an assault on the 116800 resistance level.
It is worth noting that trading volume showed unusual activity during today's afternoon session, with volume increasing by 20% during price rebounds compared to corrections, indicating that low-level buying is quietly entering. However, the MACD indicator is in a "consolidation" state near the zero axis, with the histogram line almost touching the zero axis. This type of directional choice often has strong explosive potential.
Ethereum: Bearish Pressure Dominates, Support Level Becomes Key Defense Line
Daily Level: Signs of Bearish Arrangement Emerging
The Ethereum daily chart shows obvious weak characteristics, with the 10-day moving average crossing down through the 20-day moving average to form a short-term death cross, and the 50-day moving average is gradually turning down, indicating the initial emergence of a bearish arrangement. The current price has fallen near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, and although there was a brief rebound, the strength of the rebound is weak and has not broken through the middle band resistance.
The RSI today reports 45.53, down 3.2 basis points from yesterday, falling into a neutral to bearish range, and no oversold signal has appeared, indicating that the downward space is still not completely closed. The MACD indicator maintains a green bar expansion trend, with the downward opening between the signal line and the MACD line further widening, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released, making stabilization difficult in the short term.
4-Hour Level: Triangle Convergence Awaiting Breakthrough
In the 4-hour chart, the price of Ethereum forms a typical descending triangle convergence pattern, with the upper resistance gradually moving down and the lower support repeatedly tested in the 4407 area. The support range formed by EMA24 and EMA52 shows signs of loosening today, with the price briefly falling below this range before quickly pulling back, indicating that the battle between bulls and bears at the key support level has intensified.
Trading volume shows a "shrinking oscillation" characteristic, shrinking by 18% compared to the same period yesterday, indicating reduced market participation. This state usually continues until just before a breakout occurs. If the price subsequently breaks down with volume below the 4407 support level, the 4230 area will become the next important support target; if it can break above the upper triangle resistance, it is expected to alleviate short-term downward pressure.
Comprehensive Assessment and Key Levels
Bitcoin is currently at a "bull-bear balance critical point." At the daily level, it is essential to focus on the effectiveness of defending the 114600 support range; if it fails, it may test the strong support at 112000; a breakout upwards requires stabilizing above the 116800 resistance level to confirm the continuation of the trend. Ethereum shows obvious weakness in the short term, and the breakout direction of the 4407-4487 range will determine the next phase of the trend. Bears need to be cautious of an "oversold rebound" below 4400, while bulls need to break through the 4550 resistance level to reverse the downward trend.
The technical outlook shows that both major cryptocurrencies are currently at a critical window for directional choice. Investors need to closely monitor the combination of trading volume and key price levels to avoid blind operations before clear breakout signals appear.
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