Key Points:
BTC has fallen below $111,500, testing the main daily demand area.
Spot demand remains strong, keeping the overall market structure favorable for bulls.
Price levels around $113,000, $107,200, and $100,000 may attract significant investor interest.
BTC broke below $111,500 during Monday's Asian trading session, clearing internal liquidity between $115,000 and $114,000, and testing the daily demand area between $110,700 and $113,200. Analysis shows that if the daily candle closes below $113,200, BTC risks losing support from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Cointelegraph highlighted the possibility of this retest last week, predicting a drop below $113,000 before a potential upward move. A brief bullish reaction triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Wednesday pushed BTC up to $117,500, but this rebound failed to create a bullish structural breakout, ultimately leading to the current price pullback.
Despite the downward movement, the overall market structure remains positive. CryptoQuant data indicates that investors are actively buying the dip, with the Coinbase premium indicator showing strong positive signals. This suggests that U.S. spot demand is providing a buffer for the market, effectively resisting deeper downward pressure.
On-chain data further supports this view. BTC researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted, "Spot demand has remained stable over the past month, with a total demand of 95,800 coins." Ongoing accumulation keeps price action above the recent range, even as the futures market shows signs of short-term weakness.
Additionally, during this round of pullback, nearly $280 million in BTC futures positions were liquidated, clearing excessive leverage accumulated as BTC rose from $107,000 in September to $117,500. Market experts believe that with the reset of excessive leverage, if spot demand remains stable, the market may be preparing for a healthier upward momentum.
BTC is currently trading slightly below $113,000, and from a trend perspective, there are three key price levels to watch closely.
The first is the demand range between $110,700 and $113,200. A strong rebound from this area would confirm that the recent pullback is essentially just a leverage washout aimed at clearing excessive speculative positions.
Cryptocurrency analyst Dom pointed out that the futures market has experienced one of the largest long liquidations in recent months, with nearly 80% concentrated on the Bybit trading platform. He stated that such events typically reset market conditions, creating space for a healthier upward trend afterward. If a quick recovery occurs from this area, it could push Bitcoin's price back above $117,000 in the short term.
If the recovery process is slow, BTC may seek external liquidity or test support near $107,200. Before a broader trend resumes in 2025, BTC has repeatedly fluctuated between high points and low points in higher time frames. Notably, there are still over $3 billion in long positions at risk at this level, increasing the likelihood of the market experiencing deep liquidity grabs before a bullish reversal occurs.
From a seasonal perspective, September has historically shown bearish tendencies, making the current situation a reasonable process of building stronger upward momentum after a short-term consolidation before entering the fourth quarter.
The third and most pessimistic scenario is that prices continue to fall below $107,200, potentially testing the $100,000 mark. This would signify a structural shift in market conditions toward a bearish direction, with sustained consolidation at lower levels indicating that the current cycle's momentum is waning.
Supporting this risk assessment, Glassnode data shows that the cost basis for short-term holders is around $111,400. Market analysts point out that if trading continues below this "battle line" between bulls and bears, it may solidify the trend toward a medium- to long-term bearish structure.
Related: Cryptocurrency funds saw inflows of $1.9 billion last week, Bitcoin (BTC) ETF continues its upward momentum
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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