Today's homework is difficult to write. In the morning, I still believed it was the impact of H-1B, but by evening, I was a bit uncertain. Indeed, U.S. stocks began to rebound, while cryptocurrencies still saw some declines. There are many factors contributing to the rise in U.S. stocks. I looked into it, including reasons related to TikTok, positive news for Apple, Tesla, and even Nvidia, which all had favorable expectations. Among the "Seven Sisters," three rose, while the remaining four saw slight declines, leading to a nearly 0.5% increase in QQQ. So, whether it is H-1B, I really can't say for sure.

But that is not the most important thing; the most important aspect is the operational logic following market changes. Before writing my homework, I was continuously observing the trends in U.S. stocks. I have repeatedly emphasized the high correlation between U.S. stocks and $BTC, and currently, there is no bearish trend in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency space. This means that today's BTC is no different from last Wednesday's BTC, and the price drop is likely not due to systemic risk.

After U.S. stocks halted trading, I saw BTC's price maintain around $112,000. The sentiment in U.S. stocks was already good, and even if there were H-1B issues, they should have been digested. After sorting out the network, I set a limit order at $112,222, canceling my previous order at $111,500. However, I found that I couldn't get filled, so I placed a market order at $112,361. My logic remains the same: with U.S. stocks rising, BTC shouldn't perform too poorly.

Of course, I may not be right. This position still carries risks, particularly regarding the attitude of our Asian friends when they wake up in the morning, especially since liquidity in the Asian time zone is quite low. If our Asian friends are not buying in, there is still a possibility of continued declines. So, this is just the first position. If it continues to drop, I have set a second position at $107,000; whether I can get filled remains to be seen.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although BTC's price has dropped, it has triggered more turnover. However, the investors participating in this turnover are very concentrated, mostly short-term investors who bought around the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, while earlier investors remain calm. The current chip structure is also very healthy, and I personally have not identified any systemic risks.

However, I did notice today that the Federal Reserve's Bostic mentioned that it makes no sense for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. He is not a voting member in 2025, so his influence is not significant. Even so, U.S. stocks should have reacted somewhat, but surprisingly, there was almost no reaction. Even Trump did not directly comment on interest rates after the meeting, which is indeed a bit strange.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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