Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
This morning on September 22, BTC remained above $115,000, but just a few hours later, around 2 PM today, BTC fell below $115,000 and suddenly dropped significantly, breaking through key integer levels, dipping to $111,800 before recovering to $112,800. ETH dropped from around $4,500 to $4,077, and has now risen back above $4,100. SOL dipped to $214.5, and many altcoins also experienced widespread declines.
According to coinglass data, the total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $1.7 billion, a new high for the year, with long positions liquidated amounting to $1.617 billion. The largest single liquidation occurred on OKX for BTC-USDT, valued at $12.74 million.
Just a few days after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point rate cut, the market experienced such a decline. Is this a pause in the bull market, or has the market quietly turned?
ETH whales significantly sold off, as the market digested the Fed's rate cut benefits.
Smart whales always take profits during periods of high market sentiment and at stage tops. Data analyst Murphy cited glassnode charts showing that on September 18, whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH cashed out $1.5 billion in a single day. Including those holding 10,000 to 100,000 and over 100,000 ETH, the total cash-out reached $2.15 billion.
In July this year, when ETH broke above $3,500, there was also a massive cash-out, but due to some treasury companies in the U.S. actively buying, the price did not decline.
It is worth mentioning that the treasury company Bitmine currently holds 2.151 million ETH (worth $9 billion) at a cost price of $3,949. Although the company previously stated it would not sell its holdings in the short term, the market is concerned that if ETH falls below its cost, it could raise questions about its stock performance and subsequent buying capacity.
With ETH showing weakness, the performance of altcoins can be imagined, with significant declines occurring except for some BNB Chain ecosystems and DEX derivatives.
Additionally, since the beginning of September, the market has generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points. As a result, BTC rose from $107,000, fluctuating upward, and after the Fed's decision was announced, it briefly touched $117,900. Once the good news is fully priced in, the market often sees a correction.
Subsequent market direction analysis
Glassnode previously released an analysis indicating that Bitcoin's CBD (Cost Basis Distribution) heatmap shows supply concentrated around $117,000, forming a key resistance area. Breaking through this level could open up a channel for further supply reduction; if it fails to break through, it may prolong consolidation or trigger a correction.
Matrixport released a market view stating, "In the past period, the risk-reward ratio for Ethereum long positions has been more favorable. However, as the market enters a rapid upward phase, technical indicators often become ineffective. Especially when the weekly stochastic indicator reaches extreme highs and reverses, whether investors are cautious often determines whether profits can be locked in. In recent months, treasury companies have been the main buyers of Ethereum, and as net assets shrink, their ability to add funds may be limited. In this context, strict risk management appears to be more prudent."
Weiss Crypto tweeted that the effects of the Fed's rate cut will not truly manifest until mid-December. Their model indicates that sideways fluctuations may continue for another 30 to 60 days, with a significant bottom possibly appearing around October 17. It is worth noting that Weiss Crypto recently predicted that the market's phase top would be around September 20.
Historical data shows that BTC often experiences declines in September. Although there was a slight drop today, the current BTC monthly line still maintains a small bullish state. If the September monthly line declines, as some speculate, then in the next week or so, BTC may face a further correction of over 3%.
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