This morning, I just finished reading BlackRock's Q4 2025 investment strategy outlook. In simple terms, it means going all in on #AI, optimistic about the future! Then I checked BlackRock's investment proportion in the #AI field, and indeed, it is the highest, especially among the seven major U.S. stocks. Let me summarize and elaborate. 👇

1️⃣ BlackRock's "Three-Pronged" Approach

Live in the moment. They believe the short term is more predictable than the long term. What does that mean? Long-term macro anchors (like globalization dividends and stable interest rate cycles) are now gone, and no one can predict the next 3-5 years. However, there is some certainty in the short term, such as the U.S. economy not suddenly collapsing and corporate earnings data being real and visible. Therefore, they dare to continue taking risks in assets and are optimistic about the U.S. stock market. Enjoy the present; since BlackRock cannot predict the next 3-5 years, as ordinary investors, we might as well seize the moment and make good money, as worrying about the future is of no use!

Be bold in navigating uncertainty. BlackRock openly acknowledges macro instability in their strategy report, but this precisely provides opportunities for "excess returns." High volatility does not necessarily mean losing money; the key is to know how to pick and manage. Previously, we invested passively in the major indices (the seven major stocks) to earn beta returns, but such good times may be over. Now, we need to engage in serious stock picking and asset allocation, so the difficulty of future investments will increase, and the real test of strength has arrived.

Grasp the big trends tightly; long-term anchors missing? BlackRock states that this is not a problem; super trends like #AI, energy transition, and geopolitical factors serve as anchors. You cannot treat them as slogans; they must be concretely implemented in asset selection. Instead of vaguely saying "AI is amazing," you should pick #AI companies or related infrastructure that can earn real profits, such as supercomputing centers and nuclear power, which are all good opportunities.

2️⃣ Specific Investment Strategies:

U.S. Stocks: Continue Overweight

BlackRock's report clearly states that U.S. companies are stronger than those in Europe and Japan, relying on earnings support rather than speculative valuations. #AI investments are driving earnings growth, and U.S. companies are reaping the most benefits, so the U.S. stock market can still perform well. In fact, BlackRock also indirectly indicates that current #AI company valuations are not cheap, but "earnings can support high valuations." The core logic is that #AI = new productivity, so they will continue to go all in on #AI.

Emerging Markets & Japan: Potential, but Selective

Emerging markets should be selected based on major trends (like new energy and technology supply chains). The Japanese market has significant highlights: inflation has returned, and corporate reforms are making shareholder returns more favorable.

BlackRock actually prefers yen exposure because, in times of crisis, the yen often appreciates, which can hedge risks. Buffett has consistently held shares in Japan's five major trading companies and has increased investments this year, indicating the advantages of the Japanese market.

Bonds: Not Fond of Treasuries, Prefer "Alternatives"

Favorable towards short-term inflation-linked bonds (because U.S. tariffs may push up inflation).

Overweight U.S. agency MBS (which have better yields than Treasuries and are relatively safe).

Prefer non-U.S. developed market government bonds over investment-grade credit bonds (due to tightening spreads and poor cost-effectiveness).

Here, BlackRock indirectly verifies the current mainstream market thinking: "U.S. Treasuries are no longer attractive," and BlackRock is looking for smarter fixed-income alternatives.

Private Markets: Opportunities Arise

Bank balance sheet reduction → Private credit fills the gap → Higher yields.

Infrastructure equity is also attractive, with low valuations supported by major trends (energy transition, digital infrastructure). This means money will flow from banks to private markets, which is a long-term trend, such as funds like KKR.

3️⃣ Focus on Going All In on #AI; #AI is the Main Event for the Future

BlackRock's attitude towards #AI is: it is not a short-term speculation but a new economic anchor. Offsetting weak consumption: U.S. consumption has slowed, but corporate investments in AI infrastructure are surging (chips, computing power, software, energy), contributing increasingly to GDP.

The robust infrastructure investment in #AI will boost corporate earnings. The U.S. stock market this year relies not on valuation expansion but on real earnings growth, especially among the "seven giants." Historically, there have been almost no instances of five-year earnings growth exceeding 15%, but BlackRock believes #AI might break this record.

We calculated BlackRock's holding data, and currently, they are fully committed to the #AI sector. Their logic is not "AI stocks will rise in the short term," but rather "AI will raise the entire U.S. stock market's earnings center," which is more substantial and certain than mere conceptual speculation.

Overall, if you are an investor in U.S. stocks, BlackRock's revelations tell us not to fear high valuations in the short term because earnings provide real support (especially for #AI stocks). But don't forget to diversify: the U.S. stock market is the main battlefield, but Japan and some emerging markets are additional points.

The bond strategy needs to change; don't just focus on Treasuries; consider inflation-linked bonds, MBS, and other alternatives. The private market presents opportunities; if you have access, private credit and infrastructure investments will be very popular in the coming years.

AI remains the core theme: this is not a fleeting moment but a productivity revolution, and it should be given significant weight in the investment portfolio. 🧐

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